Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcaa1ef1c76f5dd40c79453ac3ded6e6520e3479ad0b76b981e3a338b1f154d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $228,419
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $266,821
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $228,419 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 178 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4c3…2e3fbacked Yes | 6c | 29,879$1,932 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,932.21 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a35…41cebacked No | 1c | 21,420$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,300.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +2,980%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 1c | 6,823$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.71 | 70 | 8.6%6 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,900$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 0c | 3,246$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 1c | 2,732$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x884a…aa34backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0791…d81fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,176$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bad…b337backed No | 1c | 2,106$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,084.83 | 323 | 10.5%34 W · 289 L | +15.6wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 1c | 1,955$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Yes | 1c | 1,502$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…26abbacked Yes | 22c | 1,500$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.95 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9372…3b1abacked Yes | 1c | 1,291$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb990…947cbacked No | 2c | 1,191$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,163.86 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 7cpaid | +318.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 2c | 1,087$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,061.96 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c9…287ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,050$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 7c | 962.85$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.62 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf37b…2bcabacked No | 22c | 919.09$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$712.82 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 17c | 918.33$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.04 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 16c | 670.69$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.06 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 76c | 614.03$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.08 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…d5fabacked No | 7c | 503.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.61 | 483 | 31.3%151 W · 332 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 36c | 496.14$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.39 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 468.86$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.49 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 52c | 440.05$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.91 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 4c | 400$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 22c | 370.92$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.73 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 334.78$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 77c | 299.31$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.59 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21e5…b7e9backed Yes | 12c | 274.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 18c | 274.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.91 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 67c | 265.28$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.9 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 65c | 262.54$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.13 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 250.87$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…852cbacked No | 45c | 239.81$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.6 | 257 | 42.4%109 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 64c | 238.7$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.42 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…bad9backed No | 54c | 223.7$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.16 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 71cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 54c | 222.4$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.47 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 23c | 222.17$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.1 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33fa…c278backed Yes | 70c | 216.17$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.33 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 215.69$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.83 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6316…7488backed Yes | 72c | 205.53$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.73 | 153 | 34%52 W · 101 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c92…3cd0backed Yes | 55c | 200.64$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.15 | 171 | 35.1%60 W · 111 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 30c | 186.73$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.58 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 33c | 178.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 169.32$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2f46…76f5backed Yes | 50c | 159.68$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.48 | 301 | 31.9%96 W · 205 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 61c | 158.76$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.39 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 43c | 156.41$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.93 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 38c | 154.5$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.87 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa58…895ebacked Yes | 79c | 148.84$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.51 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…ea10backed Yes | 79c | 146.63$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.53 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 41c | 145.54$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…aff0backed Yes | 24c | 145$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 149 | 44.3%66 W · 83 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f3…0b6cbacked Yes | 42c | 144.86$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.16 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 49c | 143.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.5 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9618…5823backed No | 30c | 139.93$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.32 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +116.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…114dbacked Yes | 79c | 136.86$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.7 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…22e0backed No | 12c | 130.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.48 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 128.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.18 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 76c | 124.93$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.98 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 46c | 122.58$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed No | 67c | 122.32$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.51 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed No | 36c | 117.85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.9 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3d46…dc46backed Yes | 63c | 115.39$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.11 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 78c | 112.46$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.42 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…56a6backed Yes | 14c | 106.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 64c | 104.69$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.06 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a43…26babacked Yes | 58c | 104.14$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.7 | 93 | 46.2%43 W · 50 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 53c | 101.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.31 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe82a…db8dbacked Yes | 23c | 101.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 20c | 100.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d86…9671backed Yes | 35c | 99.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 24c | 99.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.92 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…669ebacked No | 26c | 96.49$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.23 | 66 | 10.6%7 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf585…aae1backed Yes | 20c | 95.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 28c | 93.67$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.03 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 46c | 93.65$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x503d…ba11backed Yes | 44c | 92.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745d…e109backed Yes | 51c | 92.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.57 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 17c | 84.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 59c | 82.57$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.84 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 24c | 80.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbd…a0a2backed Yes | 75c | 78.66$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe1de…aadfbacked No | 48c | 75.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 63 | 76.2%48 W · 15 L | +7.8wins | +0.12per pick | 64cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 55c | 75.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d6…8b53backed No | 52c | 73.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…5678backed Yes | 66c | 73.19$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…7080backed No | 73c | 72.97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 19c | 72.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 30c | 71.73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb977…b5e2backed Yes | 26c | 67.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed Yes | 69c | 66.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 80c | 65.66$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31af…5c86backed Yes | 29c | 64.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 318 | 36.8%117 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9af2…1215backed Yes | 31c | 62.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 52c | 62.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or higher on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.