Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cd7451f07e1682d4f0ddd5dff08c6253f67547a1afd88b5c4694028a015d6bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $110,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $112,406
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $110,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4c3…2e3fbacked Yes | 0c | 56,255$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 15c | 2,532$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.58 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 29c | 865.71$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.28 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 4c | 837.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 742.2$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 45c | 492.19$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.29 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 35c | 474.81$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.1 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 23c | 454.1$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.39 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 12c | 450.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.1 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 41c | 450.47$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.86 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 408.38$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.57 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 17c | 372.68$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.84 | 206 | 31.6%65 W · 141 L | -23.6wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 60c | 333.32$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09c9…287ebacked Yes | 9c | 323.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…3554backed Yes | 46c | 304.22$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.34 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…6c10backed Yes | 26c | 284.88$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.85 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 33c | 283.31$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.66 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 45c | 281.17$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked Yes | 50c | 276.01$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.01 | 299 | 53.8%161 W · 138 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…22e0backed Yes | 12c | 265.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 70 | 21.4%15 W · 55 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d46…dc46backed Yes | 37c | 245.57$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.47 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 27c | 221.52$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 24c | 206.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.78 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ae…28e0backed Yes | 42c | 203.27$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.3 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +205.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 198.44$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 170.22$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.21 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2347…5adfbacked Yes | 27c | 168.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 119 | 38.7%46 W · 73 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 66c | 144.47$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.55 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 28c | 142.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.89 | 451 | 48.6%219 W · 232 L | +21.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 65c | 142.09$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 24c | 141.45$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 35c | 135.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.64 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aea…2ab8backed Yes | 69c | 132.88$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.24 | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 21c | 130.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.01 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 127.22$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.14 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 40c | 126.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.44 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71f3…0b6cbacked Yes | 29c | 118.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.63 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8de…a2b8backed Yes | 16c | 117$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 25c | 112.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 65c | 110.62$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.07 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf585…aae1backed Yes | 68c | 106.74$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.51 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 34c | 104.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.55 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…b89cbacked No | 66c | 101.24$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.76 | 107 | 80.4%86 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…5678backed Yes | 39c | 97.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b1…7802backed Yes | 32c | 96.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5e…aa95backed Yes | 19c | 89.41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 89.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.56 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc4…1fd8backed Yes | 42c | 89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.03 | 203 | 58.6%119 W · 84 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 18c | 88.63$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d6…8f66backed No | 50c | 83.44$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.72 | 180 | 52.8%95 W · 85 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 45c | 80.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 22c | 78.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d49…5ecebacked Yes | 34c | 76.22$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.12 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 61c | 73.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.59 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 35c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ae…7bc6backed No | 62c | 66.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 25c | 65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…171fbacked Yes | 28c | 62.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 252 | 39.7%100 W · 152 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f7…dae0backed No | 28c | 57.85$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 64c | 55.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.95 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 58c | 54.69$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bda…7258backed Yes | 35c | 51.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed Yes | 21c | 50.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…2bd6backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -25%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…b2ffbacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 37c | 49.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e08…59d2backed Yes | 27c | 49.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 37c | 49.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…0551backed Yes | 38c | 49.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe16…d380backed No | 71c | 49.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee83…ea10backed Yes | 55c | 48.85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed Yes | 40c | 48.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.29 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 43c | 48.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x503d…ba11backed Yes | 63c | 47.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 33c | 46.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 38c | 46.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 65c | 44.58$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 27c | 42.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 76c | 42.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…5ee6backed No | 60c | 40.81$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 68cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 64c | 36.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 40c | 35.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 35c | 35.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 66c | 35.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd849…6d86backed No | 63c | 32.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd611…53c8backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 72 | 77.8%56 W · 16 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f43…a1dfbacked Yes | 33c | 30.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 70 | 37.1%26 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…b209backed Yes | 70c | 29.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.37 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -12.8wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C or higher on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.