Tennis · resolved market
Pan Pacific Open: Belinda Bencic vs Varvara Gracheva
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfce3d5602b0c327edfe67ea21a389c9fa6c2cc8ccf39b0a746c3066c2a894d08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bencicof Bencic, Gracheva
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6757…7ecebacked Gracheva | 22c | 4,737$1,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,023.78 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Gracheva | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.95 | 60 | 35%21 W · 39 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Gracheva | 12c | 1,615$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 189 | 33.9%64 W · 125 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacdf…0ec4backed Gracheva | 17c | 1,500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 85 | 62.4%53 W · 32 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Gracheva | 20c | 1,400$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.36 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Bencic | 69c | 1,277$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.09 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…232fbacked Bencic | 64c | 1,236$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.94 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Bencic | 70c | 1,175$823 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.5 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bencic | 78c | 1,166$912 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.46 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb855…90b2backed Bencic | 74c | 1,125$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.5 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Gracheva | 36c | 1,014$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.94 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Bencic | 78c | 703.27$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.17 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Gracheva | 24c | 678.78$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.87 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…a3c3backed Gracheva | 23c | 600$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.98 | 132 | 53.8%71 W · 61 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Gracheva | 6c | 558.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 191 | 31.4%60 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Bencic | 77c | 500$384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Bencic | 77c | 468$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.4 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Bencic | 77c | 420.9$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.88 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…b1b1backed Gracheva | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Bencic | 67c | 384$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.5 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Gracheva | 21c | 350$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 85 | 37.6%32 W · 53 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Gracheva | 22c | 173.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Bencic | 76c | 169.89$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cdf…edf9backed Bencic | 79c | 160.21$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.39 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.12per pick | 70cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5916…8d4fbacked Bencic | 80c | 150$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Gracheva | 21c | 102.53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Bencic | 79c | 101.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 465 | 56.1%261 W · 204 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Bencic | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Gracheva | 16c | 99.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ac6abacked Bencic | 78c | 98.96$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.77 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +247.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b55…2eaebacked Bencic | 72c | 83.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Gracheva | 20c | 78.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 82 | 8.5%7 W · 75 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8b…9ad2backed Bencic | 78c | 66.03$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.53 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…c705backed Gracheva | 22c | 66.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Gracheva | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Gracheva | 40c | 51$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ee…efe0backed Bencic | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Bencic | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Bencic | 79c | 26.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x69be…a0b5backed Bencic | 79c | 26.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6135…29acbacked Bencic | 80c | 24.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 76cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda47…95dcbacked Bencic | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.