NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bills (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfcf57fdeeabb9323f80b3469f96b536509b4bd5119f5e95c4fb541ee004c444c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bengalsof Bills, Bengals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,704
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,667
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,704 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1496…a429backed Bengals | 47c | 25,800$12,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,674 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1433…56a0backed Bills | 53c | 11,143$5,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,905.66 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bills | 53c | 11,000$5,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,830 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb511…dedfbacked Bills | 55c | 4,000$2,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,200 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Bengals | 48c | 3,200$1,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,664 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bills | 53c | 2,515$1,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,333.13 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Bengals | 45c | 2,500$1,125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,375 | 192 | 40.1%77 W · 115 L | -16.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2f…3794backed Bills | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Bengals | 53c | 1,041$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.38 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…0a77backed Bills | 53c | 1,038$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bengals | 48c | 577.59$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.71 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bengals | 46c | 517.38$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.54 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Bills | 52c | 500.04$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.65 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c77…6282backed Bills | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Bills | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Bengals | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bills | 53c | 277$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.81 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Bengals | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 159 | 44%70 W · 89 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Bills | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51b8…1df6backed Bengals | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bengals | 46c | 124.53$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd79c…a0e7backed Bengals | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe7…5fb9backed Bills | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Bills | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d30…19c4backed Bills | 55c | 81.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Bills | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Bengals | 48c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Bengals | 47c | 63.74$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.78 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdba…b26abacked Bengals | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bills | 52c | 61.72$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Bengals | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 169 | 40.8%69 W · 100 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d08…7b68backed Bengals | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f8…79a8backed Bengals | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 102 | 56.9%58 W · 44 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed Bengals | 49c | 40.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 145 | 50.3%73 W · 72 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a52…82e5backed Bengals | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked Bills | 53c | 36.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 133 | 39.8%53 W · 80 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd095…3116backed Bills | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Bills | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 48.5%48 W · 51 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd4…ea9abacked Bills | 55c | 31.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973a…70e6backed Bills | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 72 | 62.5%45 W · 27 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf492…29c2backed Bengals | 48c | 25.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 102 | 52.9%54 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bills | 53c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…2a57backed Bills | 53c | 24.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bills | 49c | 23.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeabf…97e5backed Bills | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bills (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bills (-3.5)Bengals won
- Bengals vs. BillsBills won
- Bengals vs. Bills: 1H MoneylineBengals won
- Bengals vs. Bills: O/U 51.5Over won
- Bengals vs. Bills: O/U 52.5Over won
- Bengals vs. Bills: O/U 53.5Over won
- Bengals vs. Bills: O/U 54.5Over won
- Spread: Bills (-6.5)Bengals won
- Spread: Bills (-7.5)Bengals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.