NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bills (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x945656f6ee7b3d7b16ac83e55c1cfb10b8aab1a0b4c147477ce48a0a7ca94be6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bengalsof Bills, Bengals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bills | 42c | 7,413$3,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,091.47 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Bengals | 58c | 6,000$3,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,520 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2f…3794backed Bills | 42c | 1,400$581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.25 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Bengals | 59c | 1,235$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.22 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bengals | 58c | 814.76$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.2 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef8…8712backed Bengals | 58c | 517.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.24 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Bills | 41c | 499.99$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8839…8a3ebacked Bills | 42c | 476.19$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Bills | 43c | 401$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.43 | 477 | 38.6%184 W · 293 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…bda0backed Bengals | 59c | 400$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0102…e4d2backed Bengals | 59c | 254.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Bengals | 59c | 244$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.04 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c77…6282backed Bills | 43c | 234.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bengals | 59c | 209.61$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.94 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb457…b13abacked Bengals | 59c | 206.78$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.78 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Bengals | 59c | 203.39$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.39 | 159 | 44%70 W · 89 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68f6…7742backed Bengals | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bengals | 56c | 191.07$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.91 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…928dbacked Bengals | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bills | 40c | 166.67$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.67 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe7…68f3backed Bengals | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Bills | 42c | 142.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd995…9bcbbacked Bills | 42c | 142.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Bills | 28c | 120$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc7…b89bbacked Bengals | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d2a…3141backed Bengals | 70c | 90$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -7.1wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Bills | 41c | 90$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cd…b74cbacked Bills | 14c | 86.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 191 | 24.6%47 W · 144 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf70…7d5fbacked Bengals | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2203…e5a1backed Bengals | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a8…0cecbacked Bengals | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bills | 42c | 74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Bills | 42c | 50.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Bengals | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Bengals | 80c | 34.74$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 281 | 51.6%145 W · 136 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52bd…1a8abacked Bengals | 59c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x251b…143cbacked Bengals | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 60 | 55%33 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Bengals | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 169 | 40.8%69 W · 100 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a4…3c66backed Bengals | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Bengals | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba70…db6abacked Bengals | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2696…c031backed Bengals | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bills (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bills (-3.5)Bengals won
- Bengals vs. BillsBills won
- Bengals vs. Bills: 1H MoneylineBengals won
- Bengals vs. Bills: O/U 51.5Over won
- Bengals vs. Bills: O/U 52.5Over won
- Bengals vs. Bills: O/U 53.5Over won
- Bengals vs. Bills: O/U 54.5Over won
- Spread: Bills (-5.5)Bengals won
- Spread: Bills (-6.5)Bengals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.