NFL · resolved market
Bengals vs. Bills: O/U 51.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc46dc7c30c792260949c243004d832e814716fa4f0f8a3a3642693905600fb95
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,175
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Under | 49c | 23,600$11,656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,656.01 | 173 | 48%83 W · 90 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Over | 49c | 9,673$4,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,933.23 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +14.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 51c | 4,582$2,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,245.18 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 51c | 4,169$2,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,043.03 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 54c | 3,259$1,760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,499.26 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 51c | 1,146$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.3 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 41c | 709.46$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.23 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Over | 54c | 400$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Over | 60c | 386.38$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.55 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 63c | 271.63$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.1 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 49c | 240$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.4 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Over | 56c | 231.16$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.71 | 346 | 52.9%183 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 42c | 199.89$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.96 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c36…9433backed Over | 58c | 172.61$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.61 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 52c | 151.99$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.25 | 414 | 50.5%209 W · 205 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Over | 58c | 115$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Under | 41c | 101.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 194 | 39.2%76 W · 118 L | -11.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf581…0892backed Over | 53c | 94.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 43c | 87.06$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 61c | 81.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.94 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xece8…4edbbacked Over | 53c | 75.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +79.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Under | 43c | 69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 169 | 57.4%97 W · 72 L | +15.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 55c | 57.61$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 43c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…28b8backed Over | 59c | 34.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67b6…b4e6backed Over | 57c | 26.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bengals vs. Bills: O/U 51.5this page
- 1H Spread: Bills (-3.5)Bengals won
- Bengals vs. BillsBills won
- Bengals vs. Bills: 1H MoneylineBengals won
- Bengals vs. Bills: O/U 52.5Over won
- Bengals vs. Bills: O/U 53.5Over won
- Bengals vs. Bills: O/U 54.5Over won
- Spread: Bills (-5.5)Bengals won
- Spread: Bills (-6.5)Bengals won
- Spread: Bills (-7.5)Bengals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.