TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Bills (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bengalsof Bills, Bengals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$261,863
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$267,873

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $261,863 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4335…fc2fbacked Bills48c70,000$33,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,599.9911168.5%76 W · 35 L+18.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+34.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Bengals52c62,832$32,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,159.2119553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xef54…d1eebacked Bills50c57,507$28,666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,666.293345.5%15 W · 18 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Bengals51c40,000$20,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,80016051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Bills49c37,023$18,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,093.4711445.6%52 W · 62 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb744…5210backed Bills48c31,585$15,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,160.6217041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe73e…74febacked Bengals52c30,481$15,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,630.775648.2%27 W · 29 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Bengals51c19,998$10,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,876.7924056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9c6f…89b9backed Bengals52c12,000$6,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,759.995756.1%32 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Bills48c10,165$4,879 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,879.4327454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Bills49c10,000$4,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,90035848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bengals50c8,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,00083147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c2f…3794backed Bills45c5,763$2,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,613.488128.4%23 W · 58 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Bengals50c5,579$2,790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,789.591,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3d3…d424backed Bengals51c5,000$2,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,4502638.5%10 W · 16 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick26cpaid-20.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Bills48c4,608$2,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,193.8286547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56c6…f706backed Bengals52c4,500$2,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1605756.1%32 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Bengals51c4,500$2,295 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,204.9826547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Bengals50c4,010$2,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,00525744.4%114 W · 143 L+0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Bengals51c4,000$2,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,959.9814252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Bills48c3,677$1,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,766.0947348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Bills50c3,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50019645.4%89 W · 107 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Bengals51c2,967$1,513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,453.8353348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe727…5e8dbacked Bengals53c2,874$1,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,350.5817548%84 W · 91 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa832…e6febacked Bengals53c2,279$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.25771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+52.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Bengals53c2,179$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,024.375852.5%398 W · 360 L+21.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Bills48c2,111$1,019 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,019.4965048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Bengals51c1,961$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$960.7812550.4%63 W · 62 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+8.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x64a2…4a7ebacked Bengals52c1,923$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.081145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed Bengals52c1,923$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$923.0414035%49 W · 91 L-12.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed Bengals53c1,509$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.4313145.8%60 W · 71 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Bengals51c1,376$702 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$674.2414641.8%61 W · 85 L-10.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Bengals53c1,253$664 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.835949.2%29 W · 30 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac97…a99ebacked Bills46c1,092$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.3939242.6%167 W · 225 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2c2…4de7backed Bengals52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48022446.4%104 W · 120 L+11.7wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Bills48c915$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.222450%112 W · 112 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Bengals52c873.88$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.8350242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked Bills48c800$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38428556.5%161 W · 124 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Bills50c700$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35018044.4%80 W · 100 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Bills49c621$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.2944652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87d5…fe30backed Bengals52c601.34$315 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.062055%11 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+23.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Bengals52c600$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28818744.9%84 W · 103 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc869…8a6ebacked Bengals51c588.24$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.249657.3%55 W · 41 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+19.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Bills74c500$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.54264.3%27 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x44e6…9d9ebacked Bengals52c500$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2406162.3%38 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Bills49c485.13$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.1436341.9%152 W · 211 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bengals50c483.04$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.51,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Bengals64c420$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.268446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4085…583fbacked Bills48c419.35$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+49.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Bengals51c392.99$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.5612151.2%62 W · 59 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Bengals53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.3615944%70 W · 89 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce26…8e06backed Bengals52c350$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1688345.8%38 W · 45 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-14.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x019e…af1dbacked Bengals52c350$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1685343.4%23 W · 30 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-4.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bengals51c300.39$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.1977052.7%406 W · 364 L+24.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58a0…2b5bbacked Bengals53c296.23$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.237034.3%24 W · 46 L-7.6wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-26.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa313…e124backed Bengals52c288.46$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.4616648.2%80 W · 86 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Bengals45c284.7$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.597044.3%31 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Bengals52c273.08$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.089651%49 W · 47 L+7.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Bengals26c270$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.520757.5%119 W · 88 L+17.5wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+13.3%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xabdf…3cbcbacked Bengals52c253.85$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.855444.4%24 W · 30 L-3.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Bengals52c250$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1205939%23 W · 36 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-24.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc89d…5909backed Bills48c249.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1209248.9%45 W · 47 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Bengals51c218.37$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10715555.5%86 W · 69 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53fc…bce0backed Bengals53c216.98$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.983100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+93.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb06c…6961backed Bills49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8d3…02e4backed Bengals52c200$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$961631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-43.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7247…552cbacked Bills49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$983650%18 W · 18 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+26.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xacd5…7b91backed Bengals53c200$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.191758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Bengals51c199.98$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.9955345%249 W · 304 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b0e…7288backed Bills51c196.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+15.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd903…bf9dbacked Bills47c180.9$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.0215446.8%72 W · 82 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ff5…50eabacked Bengals52c179.12$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.983046.7%14 W · 16 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Bengals52c157.07$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.7116551.5%85 W · 80 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Bengals52c150$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726756.7%38 W · 29 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Bengals64c148$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.4835648%171 W · 185 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Bengals52c136.02$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.2932050.9%163 W · 157 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Bengals53c127$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.6983447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Bengals56c120$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.829439.5%116 W · 178 L-6.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Bills48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502548%12 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b79…3c8cbacked Bills49c102.04$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5012843%55 W · 73 L-8.4wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x740b…1d47backed Bengals52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.1510548.6%51 W · 54 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4451…c6afbacked Bengals52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.154032.5%13 W · 27 L-4.9wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x2203…e5a1backed Bengals52c96.15$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.152454.2%13 W · 11 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebd3…c5f4backed Bengals53c89$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.838557.6%49 W · 36 L+9.7wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+21.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x022a…df5ebacked Bengals52c76.92$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9218843.1%81 W · 107 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-10.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x662f…6a30backed Bengals53c75.47$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.47333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-37.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x591a…aec2backed Bills48c75$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365853.4%31 W · 27 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1787…c311backed Bengals53c66.04$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.0411260.7%68 W · 44 L+10.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x46e5…4c5ebacked Bills48c65$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99f6…f838backed Bengals52c62.29$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.638052.5%42 W · 38 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xed57…e0a0backed Bengals52c55$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.167955.7%44 W · 35 L+8.3wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+30.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4d15…6914backed Bengals52c53.85$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.859054.4%49 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0488…aea5backed Bengals52c52.08$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254348.8%21 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf35…b327backed Bills49c51.02$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2516946.7%79 W · 90 L-7.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b44…ccfabacked Bills48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2411454.4%62 W · 52 L+5.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Bills48c49.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2424243.4%105 W · 137 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8f8…79a8backed Bills48c49.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410256.9%58 W · 44 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Bengals51c49.99$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4929751.5%153 W · 144 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb342…c4ecbacked Bengals53c45.64$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.451833.3%6 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9880…82d6backed Bills46c43.48$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.