NFL · resolved market
Spread: Bills (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xedc1cbe463c62ece87fff62f3bb80ba4a3a49ce772267aca013822b6c54dbcdb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bengalsof Bills, Bengals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $261,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $267,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $261,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 120 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4335…fc2fbacked Bills | 48c | 70,000$33,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,599.99 | 111 | 68.5%76 W · 35 L | +18.5wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd38b…5029backed Bengals | 52c | 62,832$32,672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,159.21 | 195 | 53.8%105 W · 90 L | +16.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…d1eebacked Bills | 50c | 57,507$28,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,666.29 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Bengals | 51c | 40,000$20,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,800 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Bills | 49c | 37,023$18,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,093.47 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb744…5210backed Bills | 48c | 31,585$15,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,160.62 | 170 | 41.8%71 W · 99 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe73e…74febacked Bengals | 52c | 30,481$15,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,630.77 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Bengals | 51c | 19,998$10,121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,876.79 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed Bengals | 52c | 12,000$6,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,759.99 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Bills | 48c | 10,165$4,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,879.43 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Bills | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,900 | 358 | 48.6%174 W · 184 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Bengals | 50c | 8,000$4,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,000 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2f…3794backed Bills | 45c | 5,763$2,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,613.48 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bengals | 50c | 5,579$2,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,789.59 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d3…d424backed Bengals | 51c | 5,000$2,550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,450 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bills | 48c | 4,608$2,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,193.82 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c6…f706backed Bengals | 52c | 4,500$2,340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,160 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Bengals | 51c | 4,500$2,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,204.98 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Bengals | 50c | 4,010$2,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,005 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a38…8fb5backed Bengals | 51c | 4,000$2,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,959.98 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Bills | 48c | 3,677$1,766 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,766.09 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Bills | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Bengals | 51c | 2,967$1,513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,453.83 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Bengals | 53c | 2,874$1,523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350.58 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa832…e6febacked Bengals | 53c | 2,279$1,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,079.25 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Bengals | 53c | 2,179$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.3 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Bills | 48c | 2,111$1,019 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,019.49 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Bengals | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.78 | 125 | 50.4%63 W · 62 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64a2…4a7ebacked Bengals | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Bengals | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.04 | 140 | 35%49 W · 91 L | -12.0wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bd17backed Bengals | 53c | 1,509$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.43 | 131 | 45.8%60 W · 71 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e6…87e6backed Bengals | 51c | 1,376$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.24 | 146 | 41.8%61 W · 85 L | -10.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Bengals | 53c | 1,253$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.83 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Bills | 46c | 1,092$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.39 | 392 | 42.6%167 W · 225 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Bengals | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Bills | 48c | 915$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.2 | 224 | 50%112 W · 112 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Bengals | 52c | 873.88$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.83 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4673…d99bbacked Bills | 48c | 800$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384 | 285 | 56.5%161 W · 124 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Bills | 50c | 700$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 180 | 44.4%80 W · 100 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Bills | 49c | 621$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.29 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87d5…fe30backed Bengals | 52c | 601.34$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.06 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Bengals | 52c | 600$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288 | 187 | 44.9%84 W · 103 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Bengals | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.24 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Bills | 74c | 500$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.5 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…9d9ebacked Bengals | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bills | 49c | 485.13$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.14 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Bengals | 50c | 483.04$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.5 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Bengals | 64c | 420$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.2 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4085…583fbacked Bills | 48c | 419.35$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Bengals | 51c | 392.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.56 | 121 | 51.2%62 W · 59 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ec…e987backed Bengals | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.36 | 159 | 44%70 W · 89 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce26…8e06backed Bengals | 52c | 350$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x019e…af1dbacked Bengals | 52c | 350$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bengals | 51c | 300.39$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.19 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58a0…2b5bbacked Bengals | 53c | 296.23$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.23 | 70 | 34.3%24 W · 46 L | -7.6wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Bengals | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.46 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Bengals | 45c | 284.7$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.59 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c2…9730backed Bengals | 52c | 273.08$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.08 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Bengals | 26c | 270$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.5 | 207 | 57.5%119 W · 88 L | +17.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xabdf…3cbcbacked Bengals | 52c | 253.85$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.85 | 54 | 44.4%24 W · 30 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bf3…6077backed Bengals | 52c | 250$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc89d…5909backed Bills | 48c | 249.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Bengals | 51c | 218.37$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53fc…bce0backed Bengals | 53c | 216.98$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb06c…6961backed Bills | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d3…02e4backed Bengals | 52c | 200$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7247…552cbacked Bills | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xacd5…7b91backed Bengals | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.19 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Bengals | 51c | 199.98$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.99 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0e…7288backed Bills | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Bills | 47c | 180.9$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.02 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff5…50eabacked Bengals | 52c | 179.12$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.98 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Bengals | 52c | 157.07$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.71 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | +9.5wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Bengals | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Bengals | 64c | 148$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.48 | 356 | 48%171 W · 185 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Bengals | 52c | 136.02$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.29 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bengals | 53c | 127$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.69 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Bengals | 56c | 120$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 294 | 39.5%116 W · 178 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Bills | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b79…3c8cbacked Bills | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 128 | 43%55 W · 73 L | -8.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x740b…1d47backed Bengals | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4451…c6afbacked Bengals | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2203…e5a1backed Bengals | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebd3…c5f4backed Bengals | 53c | 89$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.83 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x022a…df5ebacked Bengals | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 188 | 43.1%81 W · 107 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x662f…6a30backed Bengals | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x591a…aec2backed Bills | 48c | 75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Bengals | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x46e5…4c5ebacked Bills | 48c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99f6…f838backed Bengals | 52c | 62.29$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.63 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed57…e0a0backed Bengals | 52c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d15…6914backed Bengals | 52c | 53.85$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0488…aea5backed Bengals | 52c | 52.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Bills | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…ccfabacked Bills | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Bills | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f8…79a8backed Bills | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 102 | 56.9%58 W · 44 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Bengals | 51c | 49.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 297 | 51.5%153 W · 144 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb342…c4ecbacked Bengals | 53c | 45.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9880…82d6backed Bills | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bills (-6.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Bills (-3.5)Bengals won
- Bengals vs. BillsBills won
- Bengals vs. Bills: 1H MoneylineBengals won
- Bengals vs. Bills: O/U 51.5Over won
- Bengals vs. Bills: O/U 52.5Over won
- Bengals vs. Bills: O/U 53.5Over won
- Bengals vs. Bills: O/U 54.5Over won
- Spread: Bills (-5.5)Bengals won
- Spread: Bills (-7.5)Bengals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.