MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd1396f90cf1a56bf3c01a044533803c52b2b2313a9986a09a0a24fd3bee8047
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,771
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,050
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,771 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 4,058$2,678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,678.16 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Washington Nationals | 31c | 1,999$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,379.1 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Washington Nationals | 31c | 1,246$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.98 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Washington Nationals | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.01 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e9…28f3backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 900$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$558 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Washington Nationals | 67c | 751.01$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.01 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 476.75$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.9 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 427.22$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.06 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 230.88$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.38 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Washington Nationals | 53c | 170.85$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.3 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Washington Nationals | 58c | 95.56$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Washington Nationals | 31c | 94$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.86 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 35c | 87.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.91 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 85$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.9 | 294 | 46.6%137 W · 157 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Washington Nationals | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 58.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Washington Nationals | 52c | 57.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.79 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Cincinnati Reds | 51c | 47$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 42.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked Cincinnati Reds | 46c | 42.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 42.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Washington Nationals | 33c | 33.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 95 | 49.5%47 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c38…291fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 33.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Washington Nationals | 49c | 30.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 29.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 24.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 22.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 19.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffb8…f402backed Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)this page
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati RedsWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.