MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa079a88d8ab3747e8ca5d63520c7728532a9e13915b389bcb96e011d5397896
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,844
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 2,545$1,207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,206.84 | 5,517 | 50.6%2,791 W · 2,726 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 53c | 1,375$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.97 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 54c | 1,368$740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$628.4 | 8,251 | 46.3%3,820 W · 4,431 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 48c | 1,180$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.59 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 54c | 1,147$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.6 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dad…4855backed Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 210 | 52.9%111 W · 99 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…d953backed Over | 51c | 840$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.6 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -9.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 47c | 833.21$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$391.77 | 8,654 | 52.6%4,550 W · 4,104 L | +506.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f36…2819backed Under | 50c | 800$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 46c | 800$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 877 | 53%465 W · 412 L | +17.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 49c | 647.75$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.67 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 51c | 600$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294 | 190 | 48.9%93 W · 97 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd3…5896backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 48c | 429.6$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.7 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 400$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196 | 7,046 | 50.5%3,560 W · 3,486 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Over | 51c | 392$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.08 | 228 | 48.2%110 W · 118 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 136 | 5.9%8 W · 128 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Under | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 83 | 4.8%4 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 49c | 334.93$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.12 | 3,541 | 51%1,805 W · 1,736 L | +53.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 52c | 308.45$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.23 | 5,172 | 54.6%2,824 W · 2,348 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…0b79backed Under | 62c | 290.32$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…9ccdbacked Under | 55c | 204.55$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.98 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 70c | 177.83$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.59 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 46c | 138.85$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.51 | 6,309 | 48.2%3,044 W · 3,265 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Over | 51c | 120$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 49c | 120$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +147.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Over | 51c | 107.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 55c | 106$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 22c | 105.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 1,822 | 49.2%897 W · 925 L | -25.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee6…cbfebacked Over | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 45c | 99.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 56c | 91.78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…78abbacked Under | 49c | 85.49$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 47c | 72.21$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 52c | 66.46$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.17 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…1b47backed Over | 51c | 64.71$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Under | 45c | 64.56$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.29 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Over | 78c | 63.35$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.94 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 58c | 59.2$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 4,524 | 48.9%2,214 W · 2,310 L | -42.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaf9…3a59backed Over | 51c | 53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 166 | 44.6%74 W · 92 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 55c | 52.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…f14dbacked Over | 55c | 45.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 55c | 43.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 219 | 44.7%98 W · 121 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x590a…c459backed Under | 50c | 39.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 114 | 51.8%59 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 36.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 52c | 33.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 8,451 | 47.9%4,048 W · 4,403 L | +81.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 41c | 33.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 45c | 28.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 3,018 | 48%1,448 W · 1,570 L | +14.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5c…fb95backed Under | 47c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b06…9d38backed Over | 55c | 22.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +4.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Under | 49c | 21.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 53c | 20.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.76 | 3,857 | 42.3%1,632 W · 2,225 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93dd…2f33backed Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati RedsWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.