MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x764915434daa873795a4d927464807fae7ded8e5db0af5b83a4d249f272e7629
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,874
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,874 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3f70…ce77backed Under | 7c | 5,295$389 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.85 | 43 | 20.9%9 W · 34 L | +4.5wins | +0.10per pick | 11cpaid | +89.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 48c | 4,301$2,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,062.33 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 52c | 4,246$2,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,042.97 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcff0…fa1abacked Under | 11c | 2,900$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +117.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90bb…531fbacked Under | 11c | 1,700$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2d…318bbacked Under | 2c | 700.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 83 | 4.8%4 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 48c | 359.8$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.9 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 45c | 306.07$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.54 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…6275backed Under | 13c | 300$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 63 | 14.3%9 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 209.73$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.45 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 136 | 5.9%8 W · 128 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 31c | 180.9$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.43 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 45c | 169.25$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.81 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 41c | 137.9$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 40c | 112.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.03 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 52c | 96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 54c | 86.67$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 52c | 71.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.49 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 42c | 70.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Over | 69c | 70.59$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 69c | 64.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.16 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa440…c249backed Under | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 44c | 59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6762…a9a5backed Under | 47c | 50.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 268 | 53.4%143 W · 125 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 52c | 43.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 54c | 42$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 59c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed Under | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 48c | 28.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Over | 55c | 21.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 162 | 61.1%99 W · 63 L | +14.6wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9244…643cbacked Under | 52c | 19.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5this page
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati RedsWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.