MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf935692f460c9a918939c6977c1b50aed2f64d290ee75b670b2974aa7c3cd7c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 51c | 2,860$1,445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,444.84 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 49c | 2,692$1,326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,366.72 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 36c | 2,066$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,312.27 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5e…75a4backed Under | 2c | 1,477$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 48c | 1,368$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.34 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 50c | 1,182$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593.47 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 47c | 1,034$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.6 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -10.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Under | 64c | 766.27$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.41 | 507 | 51.7%262 W · 245 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94ba…001dbacked Under | 12c | 633.46$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.35 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +131%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 36c | 441.69$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.53 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 344.11$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.11 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 42c | 340.3$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.48 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 65c | 310.31$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.28 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 46c | 179.67$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.47 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…7e41backed Under | 64c | 175$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.8wins | -0.37per pick | 60cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 44c | 163.85$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.42 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Under | 63c | 157.03$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.93 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 52c | 115$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 56c | 102.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 38c | 102.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.84 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 48c | 101$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb267…5f55backed Over | 46c | 98.22$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.22 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea97…a471backed Over | 48c | 72.48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.33 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 30c | 64.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb1…0073backed Under | 64c | 54.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 51.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e75…0143backed Under | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 40.2%33 W · 49 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 57c | 41.89$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 50c | 39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 51c | 36.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 2,546 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,378 L | -74.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 48c | 33.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…f535backed Over | 46c | 32.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.53 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +8.8wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae37…90f2backed Under | 41c | 32.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Under | 64c | 31.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…106cbacked Under | 50c | 27.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 86 | 69.8%60 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Over | 56c | 27.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Under | 45c | 25.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 47c | 24.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b8…d4b3backed Under | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Under | 63c | 21.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5this page
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati RedsWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.