MLB · resolved market
Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2b8b54897e4816e52ecee18d484a50b0ab97d6d2c074b57ba9cc2e51aecfacc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Washington Nationalsof Washington Nationals, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,386
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,517
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,386 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 4,847$2,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,410.7 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Washington Nationals | 41c | 3,024$1,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,785.57 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Washington Nationals | 53c | 2,831$1,497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,334.25 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Washington Nationals | 47c | 2,027$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,084.29 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 1,589$1,061 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060.53 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Washington Nationals | 43c | 1,295$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.69 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f6d…71b4backed Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 1,014$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 51cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Washington Nationals | 52c | 976.42$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$467.99 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Washington Nationals | 54c | 738.06$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.06 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 724.74$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.96 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cincinnati Reds | 47c | 559$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.01 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Cincinnati Reds | 31c | 474.61$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.13 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cincinnati Reds | 45c | 300$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Cincinnati Reds | 31c | 218$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.58 | 920 | 54%497 W · 423 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Cincinnati Reds | 31c | 181.45$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 134.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Washington Nationals | 34c | 75$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Cincinnati Reds | 36c | 72.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.57 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Washington Nationals | 42c | 55.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Cincinnati Reds | 58c | 55.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Washington Nationals | 49c | 51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.01 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e45…39dabacked Cincinnati Reds | 78c | 50.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b3…4756backed Cincinnati Reds | 78c | 50.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Cincinnati Reds | 78c | 50.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 120 | 49.2%59 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…995fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 78c | 50.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 49.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 40.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Washington Nationals | 52c | 38.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Washington Nationals | 39c | 36.07$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Cincinnati Reds | 78c | 33.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6d7…d801backed Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd19a…449ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 48c | 26.29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Washington Nationals | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93dd…2f33backed Washington Nationals | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Washington Nationals | 50c | 24.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c35…3f6dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Washington Nationals | 63c | 21.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1b…106cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 50c | 21.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 86 | 69.8%60 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Washington Nationals | 52c | 20.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed Cincinnati Reds | 55c | 19.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 18.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati RedsWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.