MLB · resolved market
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a96fa2ad9fde3d9218ea92a249130f8c338b6bc3691965ac3893181f96aa2c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 53c | 1,521$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.89 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 54c | 1,492$806 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$805.89 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 58c | 1,387$807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$806.75 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 48c | 1,120$533 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.63 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 47c | 1,005$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.65 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 46c | 994.18$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.86 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x433c…81eabacked Over | 44c | 681.82$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.82 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f36…2819backed Over | 44c | 681.82$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.82 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 3c | 604.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 36c | 594$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.16 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 492.09$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 46c | 471.64$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.69 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 52c | 382.69$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.09 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Under | 52c | 381.22$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.23 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 58c | 344.81$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.99 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 46c | 325.2$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.6 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Under | 54c | 238.86$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.98 | 172 | 48.8%84 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 55c | 236$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.15 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…06afbacked Under | 52c | 222$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.44 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Over | 49c | 205.37$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.37 | 534 | 48.9%261 W · 273 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Over | 44c | 194.86$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.12 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf58c…0b79backed Under | 68c | 164.71$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 56c | 161.66$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.53 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0114…fbfabacked Under | 35c | 148.43$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Over | 56c | 120.21$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.39 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x085b…ab9fbacked Under | 44c | 113.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.95 | 339 | 34.5%117 W · 222 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 56c | 93.52$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.15 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Over | 68c | 72.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05b7…c24abacked Over | 47c | 66.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | -23.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 59c | 62.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d10…940abacked Over | 46c | 59.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.23 | 1,014 | 47.7%484 W · 530 L | -28.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 37c | 58.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 32c | 58.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd60…3927backed Under | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Over | 42c | 46.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 64c | 44.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 47c | 43.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked Under | 56c | 43.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 273 | 54.6%149 W · 124 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 56c | 40.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf574…de82backed Over | 45c | 37.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Under | 59c | 36.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb21…3138backed Under | 55c | 33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Under | 50c | 29.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 486 | 53.7%261 W · 225 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 44c | 28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 55c | 23.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Under | 50c | 20.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5this page
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-1.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-2.5)Washington Nationals won
- Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5)Washington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati RedsWashington Nationals won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 11.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 12.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 7.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Over won
- Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati RedsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.