Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd173f9baba665e036e31fca6bf759833a56b19cfa1015ea4a692340c9015140
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,358
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,358 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 8c | 2,562$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.23 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,370$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.4 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 80c | 1,018$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.74 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 11c | 910.45$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.56 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 5c | 820.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 7c | 451.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…4eedbacked Yes | 30c | 444.65$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 8c | 373.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.12 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91f8…d951backed No | 78c | 372.2$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.2 | 57 | 52.6%30 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 25c | 307.2$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.39 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 26c | 286.21$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 8c | 267.24$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 261.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 15c | 250.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 9c | 243.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3f…fde2backed No | 79c | 240.25$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.25 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6786…c8ffbacked Yes | 15c | 212.78$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 324 | 40.1%130 W · 194 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 23c | 212.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 24c | 209.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.71 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 20c | 206.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked Yes | 11c | 168.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -58%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 10c | 168$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…f8efbacked Yes | 23c | 163.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5358…7a7dbacked Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…a330backed Yes | 10c | 139.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 29c | 134.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 80c | 123$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.97 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 16c | 122.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb86…fb51backed Yes | 10c | 116.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 77c | 104.43$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.99 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e95…ec2cbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 16c | 96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed Yes | 27c | 94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.04 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 21c | 91.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed Yes | 17c | 84.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x882b…7564backed Yes | 26c | 69.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 19c | 62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 22c | 46.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 77c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 78c | 24.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 75c | 19.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed No | 80c | 14.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.91 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -13.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 34°C or higher on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.