Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x28fb5337e53379dc4c52011de5ec7e0ae68289d17fcb28d937f98167aa78e4bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 36c | 1,063$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.73 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 63c | 1,026$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.55 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f74…8774backed Yes | 39c | 964$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.83 | 212 | 36.8%78 W · 134 L | +14.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 38c | 743.11$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.99 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 23c | 700.16$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.74 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 605.81$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.55 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 40c | 478.73$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.22 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 33c | 437.15$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes | 37c | 411.57$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.89 | 79 | 34.2%27 W · 52 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 10c | 395.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 35c | 393$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.21 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 64c | 377.62$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.66 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…4eedbacked Yes | 43c | 340$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.9 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 37c | 327.46$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.78 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x130b…da9abacked Yes | 39c | 325.51$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.62 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 38c | 305.75$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.91 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 50c | 297.52$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.93 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 67c | 293.28$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.12 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 73c | 283.67$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.46 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe605…914fbacked Yes | 35c | 242.16$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.99 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 34c | 236.06$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.85 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 65c | 230.32$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.04 | 242 | 62.4%151 W · 91 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 217.26$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.29 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 40c | 215.69$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.11 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 53c | 205$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.4 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 41c | 187.97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.43 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed No | 63c | 177.1$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.51 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9161…943ebacked Yes | 34c | 174.16$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.95 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 70c | 171.6$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 166.67$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 160.43$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.45 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 34c | 158.07$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.07 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 38c | 154.03$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.52 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes | 56c | 147.08$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.41 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed Yes | 70c | 144.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 53c | 142.41$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.48 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 52c | 138$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.76 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 63c | 135.27$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.62 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 66c | 123.72$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.5 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 32c | 121.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.11 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 117.44$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…53b0backed Yes | 45c | 112.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…a5eabacked No | 60c | 108.72$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.69 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 19c | 102.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf96c…9014backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes | 54c | 99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 62c | 95.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.02 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 54c | 92.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 89.87$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38d6…d072backed Yes | 70c | 88.88$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.36 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 75c | 87.91$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b7c…f811backed Yes | 64c | 86.9$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.63 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 56c | 85.81$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6396…7183backed Yes | 52c | 83.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.7 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -9.5wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No | 31c | 79.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 34c | 71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.86 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 35c | 62.92$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.9 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 18c | 60.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 39c | 57.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.13 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2549…c8b1backed Yes | 31c | 57.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.38 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda24…7e54backed No | 67c | 56.95$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.37 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 51c | 55.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 34c | 55.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.56 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 67c | 53.91$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 57c | 52.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371b…8786backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba0f…9558backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 28c | 48.27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.95 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 67c | 47.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.77 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 23c | 47.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d1…019abacked Yes | 53c | 47.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 255 | 36.9%94 W · 161 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 72c | 46.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 68c | 45.68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7135…4c0dbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e95…ec2cbacked Yes | 37c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a23…932abacked Yes | 36c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…6468backed Yes | 50c | 39.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 65c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 55c | 38.75$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 57c | 38.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 39c | 38.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 36.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabc8…cda5backed Yes | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +86%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 63c | 34.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 63c | 34.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…a330backed Yes | 30c | 33.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8688…27fbbacked Yes | 40c | 33.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee2d…6968backed Yes | 65c | 32.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…c5cebacked No | 42c | 32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 77 | 48.1%37 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 51c | 30.71$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.11 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 55c | 30.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 63c | 30.43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 34°C or higher on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.