TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$24,422
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$29,863

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,422 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 124 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1cfc…2111backed No36c1,063$379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.7338243.2%165 W · 217 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No63c1,026$642 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$641.552,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f74…8774backed Yes39c964$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.8321236.8%78 W · 134 L+14.2wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+15.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2edc…a207backed Yes38c743.11$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.995427.8%15 W · 39 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No23c700.16$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.744,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No66c605.81$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.558,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes40c478.73$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.2236930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes33c437.15$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.9510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa95e…a8edbacked Yes37c411.57$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.897934.2%27 W · 52 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-30.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No10c395.38$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.981,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes35c393$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.211,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d85…726fbacked No64c377.62$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.6639956.6%226 W · 173 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79ad…4eedbacked Yes43c340$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.96845.6%31 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes37c327.46$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.7856627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x130b…da9abacked Yes39c325.51$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.621127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes38c305.75$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.912,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No50c297.52$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.932,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No67c293.28$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.1267158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes73c283.67$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.4613544.4%60 W · 75 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe605…914fbacked Yes35c242.16$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.9911438.6%44 W · 70 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xec86…60e4backed Yes34c236.06$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.851,16338.2%444 W · 719 L+19.4wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No65c230.32$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.0424262.4%151 W · 91 L+0.7wins0.00per pick62cpaid+5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No64c217.26$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.293,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No40c215.69$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1153525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No53c205$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.45,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes41c187.97$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.433,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed No63c177.1$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.5160236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9161…943ebacked Yes34c174.16$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.951637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e3e…f882backed Yes70c171.6$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.1340337.2%150 W · 253 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No38c166.67$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.512,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No63c160.43$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.454,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7956…eba5backed Yes34c158.07$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.071,04838.1%399 W · 649 L-3.8wins0.00per pick38cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked No38c154.03$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.522,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9e9…f1ccbacked Yes56c147.08$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.4113959%82 W · 57 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadb9…8326backed Yes70c144.19$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.8914645.9%67 W · 79 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed Yes53c142.41$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.4840265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked No52c138$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.7626265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No63c135.27$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.622,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes66c123.72$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.51,33120.8%277 W · 1,054 L+33.9wins+0.03per pick18cpaid-19%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes32c121.63$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.1132738.2%125 W · 202 L+8.7wins+0.03per pick36cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No36c117.44$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4512,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x4f11…53b0backed Yes45c112.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.085349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee54…a5eabacked No60c108.72$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.692161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick55cpaid-0.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No19c102.2$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.523,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf96c…9014backed No53c100$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+35.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed No54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.51,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe44…af27backed No54c100$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5417433.9%59 W · 115 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7aa…ddd6backed Yes54c99$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.31,27450.9%649 W · 625 L-35.9wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No62c95.2$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.025,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2df9…4534backed No54c92.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9925747.5%122 W · 135 L+1.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes38c89.87$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x38d6…d072backed Yes70c88.88$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.367057.1%40 W · 30 L-2.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes75c87.91$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5544945.9%206 W · 243 L+10.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b7c…f811backed Yes64c86.9$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.638247.6%39 W · 43 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed Yes56c85.81$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5122849.6%113 W · 115 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6396…7183backed Yes52c83.99$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.710827.8%30 W · 78 L-9.5wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-31.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2bb9…ce8fbacked No31c79.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8415236.2%55 W · 97 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes34c71$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.864,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x61f7…f8debacked Yes35c62.92$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.928742.5%122 W · 165 L+24.3wins+0.08per pick34cpaid+24.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No18c60.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.734,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No28c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.895852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x7b20…eb02backed Yes39c57.54$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.1334846.6%162 W · 186 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+10.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2549…c8b1backed Yes31c57.48$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.388139.5%32 W · 49 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda24…7e54backed No67c56.95$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.373444.1%15 W · 19 L-2.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked Yes51c55.72$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.21,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes34c55.56$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.563,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed No67c53.91$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.123,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes57c52.3$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.282,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb59a…6ed2backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154418.2%8 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes33c50$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.470148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x371b…8786backed Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.35540%22 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba0f…9558backed Yes34c49.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.997237.5%27 W · 45 L+6.8wins+0.09per pick28cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed Yes28c48.27$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.9586847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No67c47.51$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7779947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked No23c47.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0956322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x98d1…019abacked Yes53c47.31$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.3125536.9%94 W · 161 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+24.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes72c46.13$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.862,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes68c45.68$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.556,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No49c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.64,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7135…4c0dbacked Yes37c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.21747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+27.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e95…ec2cbacked Yes37c40$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.2850%4 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+51.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f1f…eb96backed No54c40$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.623146.3%107 W · 124 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No68c40$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a23…932abacked Yes36c40$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.61346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick34cpaid+23.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3541…6468backed Yes50c39.74$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.741442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No65c39$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.441,58661.9%982 W · 604 L+20.2wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52dc…33c9backed Yes55c38.75$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2576936.3%279 W · 490 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd717…3b85backed Yes57c38.56$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.772,05057.4%1,177 W · 873 L+72.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked Yes39c38.14$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.1462555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb58…407abacked Yes33c36.14$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.322,42426.2%636 W · 1,788 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabc8…cda5backed Yes34c35.29$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.29475%3 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick39cpaid+86%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbff7…554fbacked No63c34.63$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.951,02660.8%624 W · 402 L+11.0wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No63c34.02$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3376059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7831…a330backed Yes30c33.52$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.433327.3%9 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8688…27fbbacked Yes40c33.44$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.934245.2%19 W · 23 L+4.2wins+0.10per pick35cpaid+17.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xee2d…6968backed Yes65c32.34$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.346940.6%28 W · 41 L-3.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-29.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58a3…c5cebacked No42c32$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.497748.1%37 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x164c…3e39backed Yes51c30.71$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.111,03451.3%530 W · 504 L+69.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+14%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes55c30.61$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.772,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeef1…21b8backed Yes63c30.43$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1943540.5%176 W · 259 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.