TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$17,029
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,673

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,029 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd218…b5c9backed No72c1,013$734 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$278.652,06060%1,235 W · 825 L+28.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2edc…a207backed Yes30c798.04$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.945427.8%15 W · 39 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-27.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x91d7…0dfcbacked Yes2c655.26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.372817.9%5 W · 23 L-5.2wins-0.19per pick37cpaid-69%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes17c614.12$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.413,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed Yes23c587.55$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.8310,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No77c549.87$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.834,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes26c430.77$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.082,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06f2…8798backed No69c377.62$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.8716566.1%109 W · 56 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes31c377.43$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.888,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No67c293.64$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.252,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x79ad…4eedbacked No64c280.61$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.966845.6%31 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c59…0c2cbacked No77c280.36$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.449759.8%58 W · 39 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-12.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes33c254.88$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.761,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3767…2f1bbacked Yes6c250.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes26c249.95$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2856627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes69c230.23$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.6513544.4%60 W · 75 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb392…f22cbacked No75c220$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553663.9%23 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes28c210$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.21,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No65c205$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.915,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a338backed Yes22c188.83$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4229037.9%110 W · 180 L+29.1wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+25.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5aad…dc28backed Yes22c169.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3767633.7%228 W · 448 L+33.8wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+16.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4f11…53b0backed Yes18c166.72$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.535349.1%26 W · 27 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes64c165.49$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.693,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x803a…219ebacked No78c156.47$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6526265.6%172 W · 90 L+14.2wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No67c150.45$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.874,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No75c143.53$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.3813959%82 W · 57 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa8c…9169backed No73c140$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2340265.9%265 W · 137 L+31.7wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+7.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed Yes20c120$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.526,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes23c119.29$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.895,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes10c112.42$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6956322.9%129 W · 434 L-32.9wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-41.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No73c106.23$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7831…a330backed Yes28c105.11$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.683327.3%9 W · 24 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x843e…e477backed No66c101.04$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.354761.7%29 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bf3…369dbacked No78c100.41$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.913959%23 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes25c96.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.6412939.5%51 W · 78 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes24c96.15$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No68c95.56$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.654,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed Yes27c93.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9253951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed No76c83.99$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1622849.6%113 W · 115 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf114…6eccbacked Yes68c83.94$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.271,09074.2%809 W · 281 L+179.3wins+0.16per pick58cpaid+34.1%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x130b…da9abacked Yes34c83.57$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.021127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick36cpaid-22.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No34c83.18$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.21,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x35fc…ac54backed Yes26c81.8$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2124751.8%128 W · 119 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes26c78.34$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.248641.9%36 W · 50 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+4.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc950…9420backed Yes20c76.67$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5313035.4%46 W · 84 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+17.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes34c76.46$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7554335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No76c74.62$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.653525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes49c74.11$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.076,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes24c72.42$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.362,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf333…ba41backed Yes33c66.92$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.0886949.8%433 W · 436 L-24.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeef1…21b8backed Yes75c66.62$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5043540.5%176 W · 259 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No75c65.66$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.663,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes26c63.01$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.41,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes22c62.89$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0839346.6%183 W · 210 L+29.9wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9354735.5%194 W · 353 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b4…73cdbacked No79c62$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.8763143.1%272 W · 359 L-14.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes32c60.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3660236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes34c59.41$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.2623146.3%107 W · 124 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes33c59.24$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.553,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes29c57.42$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.92,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes58c56.89$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.261,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes38c56.59$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.365,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadb9…8326backed No37c54$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0214645.9%67 W · 79 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes25c53.28$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.29436.2%34 W · 60 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+94.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4478…7f8abacked Yes23c50$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.54463.6%28 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes29c50$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4514919.5%29 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.03per pick17cpaid+21.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes31c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b58…d734backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1615534.2%53 W · 102 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No61c49.38$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.1861760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes40c48.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5414546.9%68 W · 77 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No71c43$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.284,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes34c41.86$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.034,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No72c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.34,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bf6…2529backed No74c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.623845.8%109 W · 129 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No73c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.95,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67f4…df0fbacked No75c40$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1010265.7%67 W · 35 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick72cpaid-8.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7135…4c0dbacked Yes34c39.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.61747.1%8 W · 9 L+1.3wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+27.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes39c39.64$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.462,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d3f…fde2backed No77c38.96$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.965054%27 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-14.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No67c38.22$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6679947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed No74c36.98$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.752,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes28c36.4$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.172,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No63c35.54$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.057,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No75c34.5$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7476059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x56b2…8f14backed No76c30.39$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.19666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.599571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No75c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.53,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfaf3…782cbacked No63c29.98$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.091,87663%1,181 W · 695 L+0.3wins0.00per pick63cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No52c28.05$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.361,02664%657 W · 369 L+49.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+4.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc848…537bbacked No76c28$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.797958.2%46 W · 33 L+0.3wins0.00per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes78c25.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2082268.7%565 W · 257 L+72.3wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x4f1d…8de2backed No64c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91,54360.5%934 W · 609 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes68c24.94$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1761676.3%470 W · 146 L+92.4wins+0.15per pick61cpaid+31.6%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No65c24.87$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.83,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No66c24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.243,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…d282backed No67c23.64$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.851,72264%1,102 W · 620 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick65cpaid+1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3901…9761backed No70c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$655261.6%340 W · 212 L-2.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53e1…f420backed No75c19.5$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.872556%14 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9d5…ce23backed No67c17.98$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.9315062.7%94 W · 56 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.