Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc8d13002877e8133420d45204f9b4674c748614f9ca530053835c4faa7d0826a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,029
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,029 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 107 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 72c | 1,013$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.65 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2edc…a207backed Yes | 30c | 798.04$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.94 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked Yes | 2c | 655.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -69%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 17c | 614.12$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.41 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 587.55$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 549.87$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.83 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 26c | 430.77$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.08 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 69c | 377.62$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.87 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 377.43$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.88 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 67c | 293.64$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.25 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…4eedbacked No | 64c | 280.61$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.96 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 77c | 280.36$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.44 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 33c | 254.88$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.76 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3767…2f1bbacked Yes | 6c | 250.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 26c | 249.95$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.28 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8c…9a58backed Yes | 69c | 230.23$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.65 | 135 | 44.4%60 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…f22cbacked No | 75c | 220$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 28c | 210$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 65c | 205$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.91 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a338backed Yes | 22c | 188.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 290 | 37.9%110 W · 180 L | +29.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 22c | 169.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f11…53b0backed Yes | 18c | 166.72$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 64c | 165.49$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.69 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked No | 78c | 156.47$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 67c | 150.45$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e9…f1ccbacked No | 75c | 143.53$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed No | 73c | 140$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.23 | 402 | 65.9%265 W · 137 L | +31.7wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 20c | 120$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 23c | 119.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked Yes | 10c | 112.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 73c | 106.23$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7831…a330backed Yes | 28c | 105.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 66c | 101.04$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.35 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf3…369dbacked No | 78c | 100.41$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4d…01c3backed Yes | 25c | 96.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 96.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 68c | 95.56$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 27c | 93.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed No | 76c | 83.99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.16 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 68c | 83.94$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x130b…da9abacked Yes | 34c | 83.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 34c | 83.18$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 26c | 81.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9fba…3adcbacked Yes | 26c | 78.34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc950…9420backed Yes | 20c | 76.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 130 | 35.4%46 W · 84 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 34c | 76.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 76c | 74.62$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.6 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 74.11$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.07 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 24c | 72.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed Yes | 33c | 66.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 75c | 66.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 75c | 65.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 26c | 63.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed Yes | 22c | 62.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.93 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 79c | 62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 32c | 60.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed Yes | 34c | 59.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 33c | 59.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 29c | 57.42$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 58c | 56.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.26 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 38c | 56.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed No | 37c | 54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.02 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…079dbacked Yes | 25c | 53.28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 94 | 36.2%34 W · 60 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…7f8abacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 29c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 61c | 49.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 40c | 48.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.54 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 71c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.28 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 34c | 41.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed No | 74c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7135…4c0dbacked Yes | 34c | 39.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 39c | 39.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3f…fde2backed No | 77c | 38.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 67c | 38.22$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 74c | 36.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 28c | 36.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 63c | 35.54$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 75c | 34.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b2…8f14backed No | 76c | 30.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.19 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 29.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 52c | 28.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.36 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked No | 76c | 28$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.79 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 78c | 25.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 68c | 24.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 24.87$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 67c | 23.64$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53e1…f420backed No | 75c | 19.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d5…ce23backed No | 67c | 17.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 150 | 62.7%94 W · 56 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C on July 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C on July 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 34°C or higher on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.