CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs fnatic - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd7a3797287d31f4871bff129b496d6ea7527795ac18d9b8d3f708ac08d04878
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinnersof Sinners, fnatic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf16c…d7f4backed Sinners | 77c | 5,482$4,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,282.18 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed fnatic | 42c | 5,292$2,209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,208.8 | 248 | 46.8%116 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Sinners | 66c | 2,714$1,787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$926.84 | 2,066 | 41.5%858 W · 1,208 L | -49.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Sinners | 65c | 2,689$1,752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$937.13 | 1,611 | 45.4%731 W · 880 L | +30.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Sinners | 69c | 1,942$1,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.2 | 260 | 46.9%122 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fef…b2b5backed Sinners | 79c | 1,725$1,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.8 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Sinners | 62c | 1,609$991 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617.94 | 1,054 | 49%516 W · 538 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5b…3772backed fnatic | 13c | 1,476$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.8 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdca…66ebbacked fnatic | 42c | 1,190$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 284 | 43.7%124 W · 160 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x861f…a189backed fnatic | 28c | 1,026$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.92 | 921 | 52.6%484 W · 437 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked fnatic | 24c | 817$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.29 | 2,776 | 37.4%1,038 W · 1,738 L | -140.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x02af…a5adbacked fnatic | 25c | 800$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed fnatic | 24c | 743.66$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.55 | 1,378 | 45.2%623 W · 755 L | +17.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed fnatic | 31c | 717.99$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.11 | 468 | 43.4%203 W · 265 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Sinners | 74c | 666$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.2 | 589 | 61.3%361 W · 228 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b1…19bbbacked Sinners | 78c | 644.51$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.51 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…bb5dbacked fnatic | 33c | 600.24$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed fnatic | 16c | 525.29$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x595b…c9d0backed Sinners | 73c | 412.36$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.34 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee1…f616backed fnatic | 34c | 257.47$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.47 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…a69abacked Sinners | 70c | 253.04$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.21 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked fnatic | 41c | 250$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 362 | 45.3%164 W · 198 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed fnatic | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 557 | 38.4%214 W · 343 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed fnatic | 26c | 197$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.68 | 1,304 | 26.5%345 W · 959 L | -89.4wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked fnatic | 18c | 167.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.23 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Sinners | 76c | 160$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -28%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed fnatic | 29c | 132.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 2,774 | 24.5%681 W · 2,093 L | -295.8wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5215…3164backed Sinners | 54c | 125.2$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.59 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee3…49c0backed fnatic | 46c | 98.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked fnatic | 25c | 96.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 596 | 47.3%282 W · 314 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked fnatic | 16c | 93.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 700 | 36.1%253 W · 447 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed fnatic | 19c | 92.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xbdde…af48backed Sinners | 79c | 89.4$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed fnatic | 25c | 81.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 590 | 49.7%293 W · 297 L | -31.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4309…e97fbacked fnatic | 25c | 59.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd887…808dbacked fnatic | 19c | 59.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Sinners | 76c | 57.69$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 273 | 48.4%132 W · 141 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d65…db09backed fnatic | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…e798backed fnatic | 32c | 35.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 188 | 37.2%70 W · 118 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6976…3185backed Sinners | 62c | 23.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7730…df57backed Sinners | 71c | 23.41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…c202backed fnatic | 46c | 22.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Sinners vs fnatic - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Sinners vs fnatic (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Qualifier PlayoffsSinners won
- Counter-Strike: Sinners vs fnatic - Map 2 WinnerSinners won
- Map Handicap: SIN (-1.5) vs fnatic (+1.5)Sinners won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.