CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs fnatic - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7db2e94ce7b0064955134bacf5c90024f2fd07beab4503a086482538efb9bf01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sinnersof Sinners, fnatic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,873
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef26…05babacked fnatic | 16c | 5,660$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.52 | 598 | 39.6%237 W · 361 L | -15.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed fnatic | 22c | 2,720$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.45 | 2,066 | 41.5%858 W · 1,208 L | -49.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed fnatic | 52c | 2,175$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.02 | 248 | 46.8%116 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Sinners | 75c | 1,160$869 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.08 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x861f…a189backed fnatic | 47c | 1,060$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.3 | 921 | 52.6%484 W · 437 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f9…bff5backed Sinners | 54c | 1,026$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.48 | 260 | 46.9%122 W · 138 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed fnatic | 3c | 974$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Sinners | 48c | 770.42$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.6 | 1,054 | 49%516 W · 538 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe283…7190backed fnatic | 42c | 614.12$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 965 | 45.7%441 W · 524 L | +10.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Sinners | 70c | 601$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.19 | 1,040 | 44%458 W · 582 L | -22.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a18…2ef0backed Sinners | 71c | 463.29$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.29 | 240 | 55.8%134 W · 106 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Sinners | 48c | 412.62$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.84 | 1,611 | 45.4%731 W · 880 L | +30.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed fnatic | 23c | 300.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.47 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Sinners | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 617 | 54.8%338 W · 279 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4925…a69abacked fnatic | 13c | 300$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 103 | 31.1%32 W · 71 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee1…f616backed Sinners | 59c | 296.26$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.2 | 133 | 32.3%43 W · 90 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8afe…aec0backed Sinners | 60c | 251$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a5b…3772backed fnatic | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 16%8 W · 42 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked fnatic | 19c | 200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 535 | 45%241 W · 294 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd5…ef85backed fnatic | 53c | 183.85$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.86 | 157 | 38.2%60 W · 97 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Sinners | 79c | 172.74$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.12 | 273 | 48.4%132 W · 141 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16c…d7f4backed fnatic | 25c | 164.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Sinners | 76c | 149.48$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.75 | 1,378 | 45.2%623 W · 755 L | +17.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Sinners | 56c | 137$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.28 | 162 | 50%81 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa02b…70d6backed fnatic | 47c | 135.74$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 178 | 57.3%102 W · 76 L | +27.9wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +47%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfb…e887backed Sinners | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32b…90c8backed fnatic | 26c | 114.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed Sinners | 78c | 113.96$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 468 | 43.4%203 W · 265 L | -11.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed fnatic | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbd…4476backed fnatic | 46c | 80.03$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 159 | 58.5%93 W · 66 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed fnatic | 52c | 73.85$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | -27.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed fnatic | 25c | 66.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…a2b4backed fnatic | 50c | 65.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 1,248 | 41.3%516 W · 732 L | +5.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed fnatic | 37c | 62.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 645 | 52.9%341 W · 304 L | +27.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1939…22e8backed Sinners | 49c | 57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdde…af48backed fnatic | 52c | 51.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 139 | 64%89 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d30…1a5ebacked Sinners | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c8…7dcbbacked Sinners | 65c | 45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…0614backed Sinners | 63c | 42.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 84 | 35.7%30 W · 54 L | -9.3wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Sinners | 77c | 41.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 596 | 47.3%282 W · 314 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…2561backed fnatic | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 564 | 54.3%306 W · 258 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936f…7f75backed fnatic | 45c | 32.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8eee…74e0backed Sinners | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Sinners vs fnatic - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Sinners vs fnatic (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Qualifier PlayoffsSinners won
- Counter-Strike: Sinners vs fnatic - Map 1 WinnerSinners won
- Map Handicap: SIN (-1.5) vs fnatic (+1.5)Sinners won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.