Australian A League · resolved market
Will Auckland FC win on 2025-12-12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfd9e060b1d4e3235348ab4dd56c6738ab9368903b89ddb421422e2f14849ea4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,272
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,342
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,272 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 55c | 65,691$36,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,631.3 | 139 | 33.8%47 W · 92 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 46c | 28,127$12,886 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,885.74 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 45c | 20,102$9,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,019.76 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 45c | 15,600$7,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,027.99 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…456cbacked Yes | 56c | 10,106$5,618 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,487.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 45c | 8,372$3,760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,759.81 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 48c | 2,482$1,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,179.13 | 226 | 52.7%119 W · 107 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed No | 52c | 1,914$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +51%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab8…a331backed Yes | 54c | 1,835$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.91 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -5.4wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ce…6f34backed No | 47c | 1,725$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47c8…f30abacked Yes | 43c | 914.57$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.01 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dd…ea96backed No | 47c | 836.34$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.36 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0caf…abfebacked Yes | 47c | 743.57$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.57 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 45c | 732.21$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.41 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Yes | 56c | 715.61$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed No | 44c | 623.54$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.43 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e20…ac93backed Yes | 54c | 611.11$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.11 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 41c | 541.55$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.34 | 228 | 52.2%119 W · 109 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ac…188dbacked Yes | 49c | 524$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.24 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7147…9a01backed Yes | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 9c | 500$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 39c | 445.39$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.96 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…2c8bbacked Yes | 53c | 396.15$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.15 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 69c | 318$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.52 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed No | 54c | 303.7$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked No | 53c | 288.07$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.68 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf3…50d9backed Yes | 53c | 243.13$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.13 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked No | 45c | 222.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.94 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x833e…f756backed Yes | 55c | 206.18$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.78 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 49c | 204.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.14 | 59 | 33.9%20 W · 39 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Yes | 52c | 192.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.05 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bd…df80backed Yes | 49c | 185.71$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.71 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf08b…9a7dbacked Yes | 54c | 185$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca7…1cb5backed No | 47c | 172.34$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed No | 46c | 150.16$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.62 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…5111backed Yes | 54c | 148.15$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99ad…064ebacked Yes | 80c | 125.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 34c | 123.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.58 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9270…7c9ebacked No | 45c | 117.72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed No | 47c | 117.21$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 45c | 117.2$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb3…ae1ebacked No | 45c | 110.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef41…2473backed Yes | 48c | 109.7$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.7 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1f…a9a2backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 56c | 107.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.21 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked No | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedfd…1432backed Yes | 48c | 104.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.62 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.4wins | +0.18per pick | 40cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9220…4dd9backed Yes | 48c | 104$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08e8…8f45backed Yes | 48c | 103.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce9…ced7backed Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c9…bacfbacked No | 45c | 97.36$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc47f…94b4backed Yes | 77c | 95.65$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9318…a645backed Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +47%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1e…42fbbacked No | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3b…907abacked Yes | 56c | 80$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc271…1bfdbacked Yes | 56c | 79.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 50c | 75$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…f75cbacked No | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x263f…c744backed Yes | 68c | 68.05$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4bdf…9652backed No | 47c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa9…a36dbacked Yes | 47c | 58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.74 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcad…0a68backed No | 47c | 55.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed Yes | 54c | 53.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0e…7e25backed No | 48c | 52.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked No | 47c | 45.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d30…6b31backed Yes | 46c | 43.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa50f…f999backed Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Yes | 52c | 41.89$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b4…9dc2backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +120.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x996b…95d4backed Yes | 51c | 39.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42f5…4183backed Yes | 47c | 35.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6172…40cabacked Yes | 45c | 29.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb53c…c76ebacked Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +145.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e0…b300backed Yes | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed No | 49c | 23.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa916…4f30backed Yes | 55c | 22.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd508…2239backed Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbd…e9d2backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb967…3bfdbacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 67c | 16.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 110 | 63.6%70 W · 40 L | +9.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Auckland FC win on 2025-12-12?this page
- Will Central Coast Mariners FC vs. Auckland FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Central Coast Mariners FC win on 2025-12-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.