Boxing · resolved market
Zuffa Boxing 9: Berlanga vs. Butler (Super Middleweight, Main)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfdcd60cb0e017fbf30ec960bb1368a3fa3c260bbaeb1e8cddba4ac86d6111cec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Berlangaof Berlanga, Butler
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Boxingevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,579
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,579 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Boxing is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Boxing | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x53ad…5bd4backed Butler | 22c | 799.99$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x671d…2e26backed Butler | 31c | 766.86$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Berlanga | 69c | 686.66$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.86 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -40%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Berlanga | 77c | 510.09$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Berlanga | 77c | 454.55$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +61.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…d0dbbacked Butler | 23c | 444.41$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Butler | 22c | 439.87$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Butler | 20c | 377.78$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.11 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64fd…8c18backed Berlanga | 80c | 259.53$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7e…a65fbacked Berlanga | 77c | 155.56$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b4…d19fbacked Butler | 22c | 134.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Butler | 20c | 114.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.86 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Butler | 21c | 111.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Berlanga | 80c | 104.75$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Butler | 14c | 95.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd2…0a8bbacked Butler | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Butler | 19c | 74.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11d3…ed4ebacked Berlanga | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0506…8c6abacked Berlanga | 75c | 56.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 24 | 79.2%19 W · 5 L | +6.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +76.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba6…8b23backed Butler | 19c | 53.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aef…e415backed Berlanga | 78c | 38.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Berlanga | 77c | 28.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x277b…31fabacked Berlanga | 76c | 23.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…a698backed Berlanga | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5534…cb20backed Berlanga | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Boxing and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.