TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Capitals vs. Senators

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Capitalsof Capitals, Senators
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$36,229
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$37,551

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,229 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 253 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x93bc…8ca3backed Senators49c2,016$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.931,02540.8%418 W · 607 L+15.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cc0…f722backed Capitals51c2,000$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9815450%27 W · 27 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-15.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4a64…4430backed Capitals48c1,889$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$981.7131334.8%109 W · 204 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x821d…0a01backed Senators51c1,814$921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92121652.3%113 W · 103 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0269…cb2dbacked Senators50c1,702$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.935545.4%161 W · 194 L+11.8wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Senators53c1,364$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721.7941340%165 W · 248 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c57…5b16backed Senators49c1,277$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.251,47548.3%712 W · 763 L+2.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Senators46c1,199$557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556.883,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Capitals51c1,081$546 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$535.011,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Senators1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79a1…5801backed Capitals51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4902245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf65e…a55abacked Capitals52c849.91$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$411.713754.1%20 W · 17 L+0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd0ad…5176backed Capitals50c801.99$401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40129847%140 W · 158 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd45…63bfbacked Senators50c600.03$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.021656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+18.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Senators50c583.23$292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.6125552.5%134 W · 121 L-0.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3e4…d6b2backed Senators50c543.96$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.8641851.4%215 W · 203 L+14.6wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Capitals50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2501,03955.2%574 W · 465 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf61b…f73ebacked Capitals50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2504551.1%23 W · 22 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73b8…aa92backed Senators54c367.4$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20018144.8%81 W · 100 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-6.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Senators49c353.13$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.4579251.1%405 W · 387 L+21.7wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x05db…5676backed Capitals51c311.38$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.583100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+69.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Capitals50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501,03755%570 W · 467 L-0.8wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Capitals48c300$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15581846%376 W · 442 L+4.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Capitals48c299.47$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.7291334.1%311 W · 602 L-27.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc048…022cbacked Capitals50c231.28$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.642100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5ac…4285backed Senators51c231.06$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-54.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3660…761fbacked Senators50c221.4$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.720%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24eb…57babacked Capitals52c221.34$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.96666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+39.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0648…0928backed Capitals52c219.23$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.23650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9c1…d05dbacked Senators50c218.79$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick51cpaid-50.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f0c…31f7backed Senators50c216.24$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.1220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8831…e807backed Capitals52c216.15$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.75450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3395…6803backed Senators50c212$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+6.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee28…0f27backed Capitals52c211.54$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.54450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9de2…67dcbacked Senators50c210.1$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53d3…c946backed Capitals52c209.62$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.62250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6218…36e8backed Capitals51c208.4$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.972751.9%14 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0eee…cf0dbacked Capitals52c208.21$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.212100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2920…80bebacked Capitals50c208.06$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0324945.8%114 W · 135 L-11.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x502d…2583backed Senators50c208$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1041040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x608d…8cadbacked Senators51c204.57$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.3420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdad5…839dbacked Capitals50c204$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1022100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x683b…14d4backed Senators51c203.92$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fa1…779abacked Senators52c203.88$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a41…a684backed Senators50c203.6$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1958…7561backed Capitals50c203.5$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+101.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb6f…6658backed Capitals50c203.2$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.6250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ba6…cccabacked Senators51c203.1$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x574a…bfcbbacked Senators51c202.18$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c1d…cd3cbacked Capitals51c202.01$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+95%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ae2…f962backed Senators51c202$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37f9…fcd3backed Capitals50c202$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0af7…b3dfbacked Capitals50c202$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1012100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4462…23d7backed Capitals50c202$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4376…a519backed Capitals50c202$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1011100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf7b…9d30backed Capitals50c202$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1011100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa24b…cdc4backed Capitals50c202$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+27.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0417…d381backed Capitals50c202$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x807a…eeb9backed Senators51c202$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.8250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd005…5ea9backed Senators51c201.96$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10330%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf47e…e5eebacked Senators51c201.96$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0447…000ebacked Senators51c201.96$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-32%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe27b…858fbacked Capitals49c196.26$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.472444.6%323 W · 401 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Senators50c178.99$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.0147249.2%232 W · 240 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked Capitals51c177.99$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.437532%24 W · 51 L+4.4wins+0.06per pick26cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2400…f2b7backed Senators59c171.16$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.431947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16d5…4ca7backed Capitals55c144.48$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.48560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick64cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bfb…aadebacked Capitals51c127.45$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.45850%4 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe837…7b55backed Capitals49c123.78$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.751947.4%9 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Senators49c122.17$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6062944%277 W · 352 L-14.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf793…e464backed Capitals51c117.86$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.86955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe872…d471backed Senators50c115.56$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.781838.9%7 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-30.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b1c…18e9backed Capitals51c112.41$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.08933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-35.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x48d0…fea8backed Senators50c108.08$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.041145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b06…f060backed Senators51c106.84$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99e4…b659backed Capitals51c106.43$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.151250%6 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54bf…deaebacked Capitals51c106$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2ab…fc79backed Capitals51c105.43$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.662458.3%14 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf789…7702backed Capitals51c104.83$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.371866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+28.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb92e…7ca7backed Capitals51c104.39$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73c2…7175backed Senators50c102.8$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.41540%6 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1733…d96fbacked Senators50c102.74$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.372433.3%8 W · 16 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-29.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd6d2…a204backed Senators50c102.2$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.120%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4e2…0187backed Capitals49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5113953.2%74 W · 65 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fd3…7214backed Capitals48c100$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$523650%18 W · 18 L+0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904b…429cbacked Capitals51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4950049.4%247 W · 253 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf22a…1697backed Capitals49c99.98$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.849251.1%47 W · 45 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+7.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Senators42c96.44$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.892848.5%450 W · 478 L+17.6wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x741c…bf80backed Capitals51c94$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.062040%8 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd6e…f1d6backed Senators50c90$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.22343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5679…d458backed Senators54c82.31$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.351533.3%5 W · 10 L-3.3wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-42.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa3b7…520dbacked Capitals52c76.92$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9228542.1%120 W · 165 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f74…8760backed Capitals51c74.51$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.51366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+13%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Capitals55c72.46$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4654418%98 W · 446 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf699…07e1backed Capitals52c70.93$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.2185464.2%548 W · 306 L+64.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+18.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc224…cd43backed Capitals52c62.52$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.0119057.9%110 W · 80 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2ee…2f00backed Capitals51c50$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.54365.1%28 W · 15 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x15c9…e725backed Senators50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255322.6%12 W · 41 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick28cpaid-36.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Senators49c48.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2558346.5%271 W · 312 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x459a…97fcbacked Senators50c46.54$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.27540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.