Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe0e7b9a0f831b00b39b3266f13e74730c3fe3a0e7d8011eacd18f9c0dbae23a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 28c | 551.24$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.64 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 61c | 272.12$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.95 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 78c | 239.64$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.87 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x652d…46b3backed No | 8c | 214.29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 618 | 20.7%128 W · 490 L | +36.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 36c | 207.31$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.04 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 64c | 205.65$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 70c | 172.47$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.88 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dae…125cbacked Yes | 22c | 160$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.8 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 13c | 155.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 73c | 137.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 51c | 126.66$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.83 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 67c | 119.5$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.32 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 66c | 119.47$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 33c | 110.62$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.47 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 35c | 110$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 11c | 106.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 53c | 101.28$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 98.78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.49 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 17c | 98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd11c…ff7dbacked No | 74c | 90$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 347 | 48.7%169 W · 178 L | +13.5wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 65c | 88.88$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 32c | 82.63$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.5 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cef…8fa3backed No | 19c | 79.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 393 | 46.6%183 W · 210 L | +29.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 74c | 74.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.49 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 28c | 73.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.07 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 28c | 69.42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 67.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 34c | 67.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 77c | 66.23$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 35c | 61.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.34 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 49c | 54.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.64 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 38c | 53.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd7…55a0backed Yes | 40c | 50.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.09 | 295 | 36.9%109 W · 186 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 31c | 49.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 46.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 32c | 45.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed No | 32c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 50c | 42.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 41.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked Yes | 34c | 41.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked No | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed No | 64c | 39.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x606d…89e6backed Yes | 61c | 38.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed Yes | 28c | 37.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.19 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 79c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.49 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 67c | 34.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadd7…8622backed No | 65c | 32.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 177 | 66.7%118 W · 59 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 73c | 32.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e42…4938backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 388 | 30.2%117 W · 271 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked Yes | 48c | 29.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 67c | 26.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 61c | 25.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe942…dec7backed No | 78c | 25.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 80c | 25.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 75c | 25.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 46c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 73c | 22.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 21.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x988e…d0d0backed No | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 113 | 69.9%79 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 67c | 20.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 63c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 63c | 19.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed No | 78c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c18…926abacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.