Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1b77ed72769b8cc55de0c85c442fba4aed53caa8d9a9dd4344705646b199d7f0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,490
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,987
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,490 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb347…a115backed Yes | 34c | 1,052$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.7 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 57c | 297.96$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.12 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 264.41$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7461…3515backed Yes | 45c | 247.03$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.08 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 33c | 217.25$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.74 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 40c | 200$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.43 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 162.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 76c | 159.98$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 57c | 129$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.47 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 29c | 126.24$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.85 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9551…ca44backed Yes | 39c | 120$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 159 | 50.3%80 W · 79 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed No | 59c | 119.5$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc997…b7f6backed Yes | 44c | 113.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f89…5619backed Yes | 36c | 111.41$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…5731backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 76c | 92.74$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 92.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.72 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 15c | 89.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 55c | 86.2$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.79 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 63c | 80.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 76$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 63c | 73.4$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.15 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 32c | 65.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfadb…e3dcbacked Yes | 17c | 64.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 71c | 63.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 70c | 63.85$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 76c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe29f…cdd8backed Yes | 27c | 59.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 55c | 58.72$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 61c | 57.32$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 79c | 57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d3b…3a20backed Yes | 36c | 56.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 169 | 37.3%63 W · 106 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 69c | 56$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.36 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 59c | 55.18$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.81 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 39c | 55.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…dfcabacked Yes | 39c | 55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.45 | 239 | 51%122 W · 117 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 43c | 52.05$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…4e18backed Yes | 39c | 51.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 72c | 50.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89cc…9e01backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1c…90d2backed Yes | 42c | 47.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.28per pick | 57cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 37c | 46.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 44.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb86b…aabfbacked No | 74c | 43.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 158 | 68.4%108 W · 50 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 57c | 41.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb537…14ccbacked No | 57c | 35.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 414 | 60.1%249 W · 165 L | -21.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 32.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ec…5c9fbacked No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4266…ffacbacked No | 62c | 29.22$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 77c | 28.01$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 38c | 27.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 70c | 27.31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 39c | 26.51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 58c | 26.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 45c | 25.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5edc…bbadbacked No | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 443 | 66.1%293 W · 150 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…0fe5backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 515 | 68%350 W · 165 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…491bbacked Yes | 43c | 24.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd212…5182backed No | 55c | 24.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 135 | 51.1%69 W · 66 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 55c | 24.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 58c | 19.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6c18…926abacked No | 56c | 18.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 78c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.52 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.