NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe47c64b2db05845a61a0c66b976c6b61a317620a347d9981ad9359f3af784a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,815
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 49c | 10,780$5,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,282.28 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9f…5e45backed Under | 51c | 4,708$2,411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,296.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 2,686$1,370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,316.33 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 55c | 1,052$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.42 | 646 | 51.7%334 W · 312 L | -14.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 45c | 1,032$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.1 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 30c | 987.89$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.06 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Under | 50c | 957.02$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481.77 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 53c | 897.17$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.51 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Over | 46c | 823$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.58 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 51c | 757.07$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.96 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…1123backed Over | 48c | 621.68$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1597…6edebacked Over | 4c | 512.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 54c | 486.2$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.55 | 324 | 50.3%163 W · 161 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 56c | 473.88$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.02 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 48c | 444.42$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.1 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 51c | 296.89$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.48 | 355 | 46.5%165 W · 190 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 48c | 197.88$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.9 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Under | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 289 | 49.1%142 W · 147 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c773backed Over | 52c | 186.58$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 131 | 48.9%64 W · 67 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59ce…6f07backed Under | 50c | 180$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 213 | 47.9%102 W · 111 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfd…f319backed Over | 52c | 103.95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | -9.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 52c | 93.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 49c | 87.9$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…38b4backed Under | 50c | 86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 394 | 48.7%192 W · 202 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69b2…5a84backed Under | 47c | 84.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 48c | 75.87$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 49c | 66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.34 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 51c | 62.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 72c | 56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 58c | 48.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.53 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Under | 51c | 47.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.3 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd946…0d96backed Under | 51c | 44.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x130b…0e07backed Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 53cpaid | +36%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab33…cf5dbacked Over | 52c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Under | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 650 | 45.1%293 W · 357 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 51c | 31.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…3170backed Under | 51c | 30.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 54c | 26.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 52c | 23.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…456bbacked Under | 51c | 22.84$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 185 | 48.1%89 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 70c | 17.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-9.5)Magic won
- Franz Wagner: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Magic vs. BullsMagic won
- Magic vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 124.5Under won
- Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5Under won
- Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 242.5Under won
- Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 244.5Under won
- Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 245.5Under won
- Spread: Magic (-14.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-15.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.