NBA · resolved market

Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 245.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89bc0126116712905b476fdf96438653f87a5d0c44fcd7faa0331375d75f20e5

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Apr 11, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $7,420
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $7,666

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,420 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4924…3782backed Under	49c	2,275$1,118 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,156.99	874	51.5%450 W · 424 L	+15.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Over	51c	2,000$1,020 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,020	216	53.7%116 W · 100 L	+6.8wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Over	50c	1,800$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$899.85	2,435	49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L	+30.3wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Over	49c	1,306$644 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$643.62	1,915	49.3%944 W · 971 L	+19.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Under	50c	557.8$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$278.08	1,286	50.8%653 W · 633 L	+11.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Under	50c	557.8$280 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$278.08	589	53.7%316 W · 273 L	+15.8wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over	23c	464.39$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.4	2,949	51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L	+119.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Over	10c	302.87$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.81	1,317	47.8%629 W · 688 L	+15.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over	49c	299.99$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147	2,208	46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L	+42.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Under	51c	247.5$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$121.28	637	46.6%297 W · 340 L	-16.1wins	-0.03per pick	49cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Under	61c	219.54$133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.39	906	50.2%455 W · 451 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1bdc…0c38backed Under	64c	195.68$125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.24	70	57.1%40 W · 30 L	+5.0wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+10.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Under	50c	194$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$97	350	52.6%184 W · 166 L	+6.0wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6276…7f2ebacked Under	77c	184.92$142 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.53	191	66.5%127 W · 64 L	+7.1wins	+0.04per pick	63cpaid	+8.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Over	50c	167.69$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.85	1,399	46.4%649 W · 750 L	-13.5wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Over	50c	137.54$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.17	2,400	43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L	-82.9wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4abb…d858backed Under	77c	128.08$99 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.46	23	69.6%16 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	76cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9bfd…f319backed Under	50c	124.08$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.04	111	43.2%48 W · 63 L	-9.7wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-21%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under	51c	119.38$61 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.5	2,468	50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L	+38.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x141d…7ea0backed Under	50c	118.12$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.64	94	54.3%51 W · 43 L	+5.3wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Under	62c	115.42$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.86	1,522	49.6%755 W · 767 L	+27.6wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over	55c	108.8$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.84	235	49.4%116 W · 119 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under	45c	100$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$55	5,844	46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L	+32.7wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c6e…271bbacked Under	50c	97$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.5	153	52.3%80 W · 73 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e8…ff03backed Under	50c	97$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.5	368	52.2%192 W · 176 L	+8.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Under	51c	82.5$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.43	611	51.4%314 W · 297 L	+17.9wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Under	51c	82.5$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.43	716	54.1%387 W · 329 L	+21.1wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed Under	51c	82.5$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.43	192	54.7%105 W · 87 L	+10.4wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Under	51c	82.5$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.43	298	49.3%147 W · 151 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f49…fec0backed Under	51c	74.58$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.55	378	48.7%184 W · 194 L	+4.2wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb390…642bbacked Under	49c	59.35$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.27	1,661	50.3%836 W · 825 L	-14.9wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06e7…3acabacked Under	50c	58.2$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.1	570	51.9%296 W · 274 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86f3…685cbacked Under	80c	49.99$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	125	58.4%73 W · 52 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	61cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15bb…2033backed Under	50c	46.47$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$23.16	103	45.6%47 W · 56 L	-5.3wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ee1…268bbacked Under	50c	44.61$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.24	534	53.4%285 W · 249 L	+19.0wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x117d…6542backed Under	50c	38.8$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.4	564	54.3%306 W · 258 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf81c…d0ffbacked Under	49c	38.42$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.41	38	42.1%16 W · 22 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	+33.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd62d…5992backed Over	51c	38.06$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.41	378	52.9%200 W · 178 L	+8.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f47…6397backed Under	67c	34.3$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.45	72	48.6%35 W · 37 L	-3.4wins	-0.05per pick	53cpaid	-11%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3c2…5509backed Under	67c	31.8$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.58	184	44.6%82 W · 102 L	-11.9wins	-0.06per pick	51cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xecda…6d55backed Under	49c	31.34$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.98	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	+1.9wins	+0.12per pick	51cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x475f…7f9bbacked Under	54c	30.31$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.94	13	61.5%8 W · 5 L	+2.0wins	+0.16per pick	46cpaid	+24.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Over	46c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	377	53.8%203 W · 174 L	+12.0wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad51…d76dbacked Under	50c	29$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.46	67	41.8%28 W · 39 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe97f…9337backed Under	50c	28.99$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.44	184	53.3%98 W · 86 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Under	47c	27.92$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.8	492	44.3%218 W · 274 L	+11.8wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cad…0303backed Over	53c	27.14$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.38	110	59.1%65 W · 45 L	+5.3wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 245.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event