NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb1dab9898b791f6d8297123b7f24fdec0f822501c624cbf867b5ac3a780449af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb097…0e61backed Over | 53c | 3,131$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,649.63 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 47c | 2,861$1,359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,502.82 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3242…0e0bbacked Over | 41c | 1,400$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.95 | 212 | 47.2%100 W · 112 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 34c | 1,207$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.7 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 31c | 1,006$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.46 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe02f…3d4cbacked Over | 57c | 975.08$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.26 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 43c | 693.66$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.85 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 65c | 622.04$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.74 | 1,226 | 37.4%458 W · 768 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 63c | 567.87$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.64 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Over | 22c | 554.51$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.64 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33f…e413backed Under | 43c | 491.3$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.04 | 114 | 37.7%43 W · 71 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Over | 21c | 411.21$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.61 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Under | 44c | 299.98$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.99 | 155 | 43.9%68 W · 87 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 64c | 289.15$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.09 | 1,170 | 50.3%588 W · 582 L | +46.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 41c | 270.05$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.33 | 796 | 50.9%405 W · 391 L | +63.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 75c | 262.26$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.25 | 954 | 52.3%499 W · 455 L | -17.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 6c | 244.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 59c | 238.67$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.05 | 637 | 46.6%297 W · 340 L | -16.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…9a46backed Under | 78c | 237.34$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d6…aedbbacked Over | 26c | 218.42$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c42…e05cbacked Under | 67c | 198.01$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.34 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d62…5409backed Under | 66c | 195.86$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.57 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 47c | 160.85$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.25 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 59c | 156.19$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.5 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 43c | 144.87$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.58 | 775 | 49.2%381 W · 394 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 62c | 124.14$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.51 | 716 | 54.1%387 W · 329 L | +21.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Under | 62c | 124.11$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.48 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 62c | 124.11$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.48 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5887…994ebacked Under | 70c | 117.84$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 44c | 109.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 844 | 43%363 W · 481 L | -40.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6c…df05backed Under | 49c | 106.63$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.38 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 61c | 100.02$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.05 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 589 | 53.7%316 W · 273 L | +15.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721b…a873backed Over | 40c | 99.76$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Under | 49c | 98.92$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.45 | 477 | 38.2%182 W · 295 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 48c | 96.88$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 57c | 95.57$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb5…eb9fbacked Over | 35c | 94.84$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a51…b2b6backed Over | 51c | 86.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.22 | 898 | 53.1%477 W · 421 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9023…1143backed Over | 57c | 85.46$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.71 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 59c | 85.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…c8a6backed Over | 59c | 82.66$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.77 | 131 | 38.2%50 W · 81 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 57c | 77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.89 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 59c | 75.9$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22d2…82d7backed Over | 33c | 75$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 44c | 74.97$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.23 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2185…b40cbacked Under | 43c | 74.37$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.39 | 156 | 50.6%79 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…fec0backed Under | 58c | 69.7$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 378 | 48.7%184 W · 194 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 62c | 68.61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 313 | 45%141 W · 172 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 47c | 65.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a0c…3d4dbacked Under | 45c | 64.47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Under | 48c | 60.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbb6…8fdebacked Over | 54c | 54.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 51c | 51$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 1,433 | 47.2%676 W · 757 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8f…273abacked Under | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Under | 62c | 39.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.92 | 62 | 77.4%48 W · 14 L | +13.1wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8190…27b4backed Over | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Under | 62c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 786 | 39.2%308 W · 478 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 520 | 53.3%277 W · 243 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd210…92dfbacked Over | 59c | 24.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 216 | 46.3%100 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf68…ed10backed Over | 52c | 24.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 59 | 64.4%38 W · 21 L | +7.3wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 51c | 23.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Over | 52c | 20.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 211 | 47.4%100 W · 111 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64fb…f27cbacked Over | 59c | 19.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeed1…0d39backed Over | 59c | 19.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 76 | 50%38 W · 38 L | -5.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-9.5)Magic won
- Franz Wagner: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Magic vs. BullsMagic won
- Magic vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 124.5Under won
- Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 242.5Under won
- Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5Under won
- Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 244.5Under won
- Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 245.5Under won
- Spread: Magic (-14.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-15.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.