NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 244.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1fd3bec23631276e0a3b2d2556b5bcb9d026149fcdeb2d0cef8cf50f769dd3ed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,061
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,061 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Over | 51c | 12,233$6,272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,272.47 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Under | 49c | 7,755$3,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,955.15 | 275 | 46.2%127 W · 148 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 64c | 2,155$1,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.17 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e59…beeebacked Under | 49c | 1,685$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$859.19 | 122 | 57.4%70 W · 52 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 18c | 1,584$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.28 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f0…63e0backed Under | 50c | 1,010$505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505 | 112 | 39.3%44 W · 68 L | -11.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Under | 49c | 825$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.75 | 223 | 49.8%111 W · 112 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Over | 55c | 788.89$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.87 | 323 | 51.1%165 W · 158 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Under | 45c | 659.23$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.57 | 293 | 44.4%130 W · 163 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 51c | 628.87$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.08 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 5c | 604.25$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 44c | 579.84$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.71 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 465.44$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.03 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 19c | 432.89$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.25 | 522 | 30.3%158 W · 364 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 74c | 414.43$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.75 | 342 | 55.6%190 W · 152 L | +28.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +36%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x412f…30fabacked Over | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 357 | 44.3%158 W · 199 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Over | 24c | 390.56$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.6 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6832…831fbacked Over | 17c | 282.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 192 | 46.4%89 W · 103 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 71c | 242.25$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.63 | 313 | 45%141 W · 172 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Under | 52c | 233.46$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.06 | 267 | 55.1%147 W · 120 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 71c | 221.65$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.17 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 45c | 199.99$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 194.12$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.06 | 1,282 | 43.4%557 W · 725 L | -51.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf15d…2f95backed Under | 52c | 186.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.74 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 78c | 174.26$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 1,384 | 39.4%545 W · 839 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe11c…c7f7backed Over | 55c | 161.46$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.81 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | +10.3wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1489…9924backed Under | 46c | 142.24$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.81 | 193 | 48.2%93 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Under | 52c | 140.08$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.24 | 150 | 55.3%83 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46d3…2c20backed Over | 53c | 110.09$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.31 | 332 | 51.2%170 W · 162 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Over | 55c | 109.19$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b2…e004backed Under | 70c | 106.37$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.83 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Over | 57c | 99.13$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.5 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 46c | 98.74$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.26 | 355 | 46.5%165 W · 190 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64d6…aedbbacked Over | 49c | 96.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +7.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Under | 46c | 81.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 361 | 53.5%193 W · 168 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d1…6b2cbacked Over | 52c | 78.44$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x297e…612fbacked Under | 78c | 71.97$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 54c | 62.48$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 1,322 | 49.9%660 W · 662 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 73c | 49.19$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9e…8e90backed Under | 46c | 48.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 140 | 51.4%72 W · 68 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x050d…d5b0backed Over | 52c | 46.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 679 | 49.8%338 W · 341 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdc…0c38backed Over | 29c | 38.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc05e…5f93backed Under | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8138…1052backed Over | 52c | 36.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 94 | 54.3%51 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0e…3a70backed Over | 52c | 35.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 150 | 53.3%80 W · 70 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Under | 51c | 29.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 596 | 50.3%300 W · 296 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…2c9bbacked Under | 46c | 26.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.11 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 48c | 26.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 1,277 | 47.2%603 W · 674 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 73c | 24.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 50c | 24.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Under | 46c | 24.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 400 | 48.3%193 W · 207 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6472…81e3backed Under | 46c | 24.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.06 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc44f…af90backed Over | 53c | 23.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Under | 65c | 20.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 68 | 76.5%52 W · 16 L | +12.8wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 57c | 19.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 244.5this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-9.5)Magic won
- Franz Wagner: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Magic vs. BullsMagic won
- Magic vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 124.5Under won
- Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5Under won
- Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 242.5Under won
- Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5Under won
- Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 245.5Under won
- Spread: Magic (-14.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-15.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.