NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 242.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef08132b837e26ca18916e1dc56ab7e28013ac7d49448626f244b5243add59a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x950a…fca5backed Under | 50c | 1,982$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,001 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…6312backed Over | 50c | 1,940$970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$970 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 48c | 1,670$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$871.61 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 30c | 1,483$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$449.9 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Under | 48c | 1,100$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572 | 451 | 46.1%208 W · 243 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 47c | 1,100$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.98 | 350 | 49.4%173 W · 177 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8bb…e40fbacked Under | 49c | 999.99$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22fb…d7d6backed Under | 49c | 982.36$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked Over | 51c | 970.6$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.01 | 348 | 54%188 W · 160 L | +15.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 71c | 931.87$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.88 | 658 | 72.8%479 W · 179 L | +46.1wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Over | 53c | 793.02$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.74 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 331 | 50.8%168 W · 163 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 52c | 439.62$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.18 | 2,346 | 48.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L | -14.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2fe…7558backed Over | 51c | 431.34$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.94 | 149 | 46.3%69 W · 80 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 49c | 378.45$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.01 | 1,901 | 48.7%925 W · 976 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 49c | 331.38$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169 | 1,150 | 49.5%569 W · 581 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b4…ca9bbacked Under | 48c | 300$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 442 | 52.3%231 W · 211 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 50c | 293.83$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.37 | 355 | 46.5%165 W · 190 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…8cb4backed Under | 48c | 251.97$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6c…7e66backed Under | 49c | 247.48$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.21 | 596 | 46.1%275 W · 321 L | -16.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5438…f176backed Over | 52c | 242.8$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ea…e321backed Under | 49c | 232.66$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f6c…df05backed Under | 52c | 203.95$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.9 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb097…0e61backed Over | 51c | 190.48$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.05 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 49c | 154.28$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.68 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf433…2464backed Under | 52c | 149.71$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.01 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -10.5wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Over | 53c | 146.45$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.62 | 298 | 49.3%147 W · 151 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Over | 53c | 144.5$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.58 | 592 | 50.2%297 W · 295 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Over | 53c | 142.55$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.55 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Over | 53c | 142.55$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.55 | 906 | 50.2%455 W · 451 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 53c | 142.55$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.55 | 376 | 47.3%178 W · 198 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Over | 53c | 142.55$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.55 | 220 | 47.3%104 W · 116 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x549d…35b9backed Over | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Over | 46c | 136$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.56 | 1,036 | 47.6%493 W · 543 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 54c | 132.25$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.83 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bdc…0c38backed Under | 68c | 127.5$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Under | 49c | 121.42$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 293 | 44.4%130 W · 163 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Under | 44c | 118.7$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.47 | 310 | 46.8%145 W · 165 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Over | 56c | 104.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.72 | 1,562 | 47.4%741 W · 821 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62db…d58ebacked Under | 48c | 103.09$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 48cpaid | +38%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Over | 53c | 91.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.59 | 533 | 48.4%258 W · 275 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 49c | 56.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.88 | 935 | 43.6%408 W · 527 L | -32.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 61c | 54.74$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 1,317 | 47.8%629 W · 688 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 66c | 49.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 377 | 53.8%203 W · 174 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd226…38b4backed Under | 48c | 49$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 394 | 48.7%192 W · 202 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Under | 50c | 48.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.24 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Under | 49c | 48.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 49c | 48.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 279 | 45.9%128 W · 151 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 51c | 47.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 45c | 46.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 238 | 40.8%97 W · 141 L | -16.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Under | 48c | 41.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.66 | 650 | 45.1%293 W · 357 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…7936backed Under | 49c | 39.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 142 | 53.5%76 W · 66 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 49c | 38.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 1,048 | 51.7%542 W · 506 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 49c | 37.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 205 | 58.5%120 W · 85 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Over | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 378 | 53.4%202 W · 176 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a4…78a2backed Under | 47c | 34.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 47c | 29.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.78 | 656 | 30.2%198 W · 458 L | -86.7wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbf…a9ffbacked Over | 52c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd25c…fe19backed Under | 49c | 25.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Under | 49c | 25.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.97 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…c0f5backed Over | 49c | 24.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 59c | 24.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 611 | 51.4%314 W · 297 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 59c | 24.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 564 | 47.9%270 W · 294 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Under | 59c | 23.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 717 | 52%373 W · 344 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfd…f319backed Under | 74c | 20.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 111 | 43.2%48 W · 63 L | -9.7wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -21%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x50e0…3adcbacked Under | 51c | 20.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 242.5this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-9.5)Magic won
- Franz Wagner: Points O/U 15.5Yes won
- Magic vs. BullsMagic won
- Magic vs. Bulls: 1H O/U 124.5Under won
- Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 241.5Under won
- Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 243.5Under won
- Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 244.5Under won
- Magic vs. Bulls: O/U 245.5Under won
- Spread: Magic (-14.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-15.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.