Europa Conference League · resolved market
Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe7f0e42592f10f51f69fa4076d1009233825b29b0e01802c69b22d4b8be42d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SC Bragaof SC Freiburg, SC Braga
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,173
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,173 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed SC Braga | 52c | 11,014$5,690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,324.41 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c5…8d45backed SC Freiburg | 56c | 8,930$5,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000.8 | 75 | 54.7%41 W · 34 L | +8.3wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed SC Freiburg | 24c | 1,915$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.65 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked SC Braga | 41c | 1,682$692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$990.62 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed SC Freiburg | 40c | 1,577$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$628.33 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdb58…a62ebacked SC Braga | 69c | 919.57$632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16e5…6373backed SC Freiburg | 58c | 862.07$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 55cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked SC Freiburg | 12c | 683.83$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.97 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed SC Freiburg | 23c | 491.77$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.74 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked SC Freiburg | 57c | 438.6$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 107 | 57%61 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked SC Braga | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.12 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5833…4893backed SC Braga | 60c | 280$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1973backed SC Freiburg | 57c | 134.8$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.61 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4497…d5a3backed SC Freiburg | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed SC Braga | 70c | 115.23$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.01 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed SC Freiburg | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2af…3880backed SC Freiburg | 54c | 91.84$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed SC Braga | 35c | 90.88$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.07 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +108.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked SC Braga | 57c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.34 | 453 | 48.3%219 W · 234 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed SC Freiburg | 26c | 76.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ba…f30dbacked SC Braga | 56c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked SC Braga | 69c | 64.31$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.04 | 192 | 50.5%97 W · 95 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed SC Braga | 70c | 63.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed SC Braga | 47c | 57.36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 72 | 68.1%49 W · 23 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…8e95backed SC Freiburg | 42c | 50.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed SC Braga | 46c | 50.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 160 | 13.1%21 W · 139 L | -18.8wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -47%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked SC Braga | 64c | 47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.89 | 359 | 44.8%161 W · 198 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95e4…5134backed SC Braga | 74c | 44.54$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8919…0688backed SC Freiburg | 35c | 42.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0879…52fabacked SC Freiburg | 43c | 41.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed SC Braga | 73c | 39.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aa7…303dbacked SC Braga | 45c | 36.36$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 42 | 69%29 W · 13 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f9…29a9backed SC Braga | 57c | 36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked SC Braga | 49c | 34.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked SC Braga | 69c | 33.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…cd3ebacked SC Braga | 49c | 31.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked SC Braga | 59c | 28.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked SC Braga | 60c | 27.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 152 | 40.8%62 W · 90 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…0f46backed SC Braga | 53c | 22.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5)this page
- SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: O/U 3.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: SC Braga (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Braga (-2.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.