Europa Conference League · resolved market
SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd28506d466a34de7df7e954f8c68332153eb8b398b91857d113972b79da213bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,710
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 15,202$11,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,208.99 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd10c…0645backed Over | 50c | 10,098$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 10c | 9,454$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.05 | 128 | 32.8%42 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 66c | 7,149$4,748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,401.29 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 17c | 3,600$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$612 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Over | 14c | 2,886$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.79 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 40c | 2,500$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$989.88 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 15c | 1,446$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.08 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 12c | 1,399$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.1 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +14.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Under | 55c | 1,047$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.73 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 15c | 1,032$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.95 | 155 | 62.6%97 W · 58 L | +22.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Under | 49c | 897.29$443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.68 | 795 | 32.2%256 W · 539 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 56c | 787.35$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.29 | 638 | 57.2%365 W · 273 L | +35.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 15c | 741.85$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.37 | 179 | 58.1%104 W · 75 L | +17.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 19c | 732$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.48 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +12.8wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31d8…a9cebacked Over | 14c | 679.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 19cpaid | +48.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 66c | 613.33$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.67 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 74c | 540$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.4 | 783 | 44.8%351 W · 432 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 38c | 513.16$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 64c | 470$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.27 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10fd…633bbacked Over | 29c | 399.84$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.87 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…6ea4backed Over | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 12c | 308.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df5…6430backed Over | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 152 | 24.3%37 W · 115 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 13c | 299.59$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.95 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 74c | 291.68$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.84 | 75 | 53.3%40 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…ab0abacked Over | 37c | 273.76$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Under | 72c | 269.86$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.33 | 91 | 41.8%38 W · 53 L | -9.5wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 74c | 202.7$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 50c | 172.2$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…1816backed Over | 19c | 150.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 21c | 150$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x059d…10e3backed Over | 34c | 139.16$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.31 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.30per pick | 52cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 55c | 124$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd53c…5194backed Over | 32c | 110$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.9 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Under | 59c | 109.74$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad9…5562backed Over | 19c | 108.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.21 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3f…32b2backed Over | 48c | 102.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Over | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 47 | 10.6%5 W · 42 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Over | 13c | 96.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…99a7backed Over | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1c…8408backed Under | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.43 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -50%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed Over | 22c | 67.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under | 76c | 65.84$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0a…07c7backed Under | 68c | 58.82$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Under | 56c | 53.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3622…083dbacked Over | 49c | 47.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…68a0backed Over | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…8e95backed Over | 28c | 43.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fc…ed09backed Over | 28c | 43.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 67c | 33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 171 | 53.8%92 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45cf…0f46backed Under | 65c | 32.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x106b…4e8bbacked Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 68c | 28.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Under | 64c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.92 | 72 | 68.1%49 W · 23 L | +5.6wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…3914backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc27f…0ee8backed Under | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: O/U 4.5this page
- SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: O/U 1.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: O/U 2.5Over won
- SC Freiburg vs. SC Braga: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: SC Braga (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Braga (-2.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-1.5)SC Freiburg won
- Spread: SC Freiburg (-2.5)SC Braga won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.