World Politics · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C or below on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe8a74a082e0d6361540c76fd7c12c43fc5abfccda2114056ca74df488ddd406
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,507
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6715…9365backed No | 19c | 637.95$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed No | 12c | 438.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 26c | 388.51$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.81 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 75c | 380.76$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.09 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76f4…82dabacked Yes | 69c | 353.21$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.73 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 25c | 234.72$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed No | 37c | 191.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.34 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 12c | 188.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.51 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 14c | 159.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 32c | 132.93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.29 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 22c | 130.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31b1…11d2backed No | 18c | 118$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.24 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 23c | 91.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 21c | 86.31$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 29c | 85.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 168 | 52.4%88 W · 80 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 27c | 80.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a1…8b76backed No | 23c | 76.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 79c | 76.06$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b7…c718backed No | 58c | 68.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 80c | 67.56$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 32c | 66.72$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.57 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 24c | 65.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 21c | 63.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef0…41d4backed No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 72c | 57.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.18 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +6.8wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 30c | 57.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 162 | 54.3%88 W · 74 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 27c | 56.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 149 | 54.4%81 W · 68 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 74c | 53.41$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +140%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 20c | 51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 21c | 50.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 200 | 65%130 W · 70 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 45c | 45.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.09 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc780…40a4backed Yes | 79c | 45.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -58%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 73c | 44.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 32c | 41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 31c | 40.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 80c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f34…7fd6backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2194…ae18backed Yes | 74c | 24.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ad…4c12backed No | 60c | 23.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0082…c023backed Yes | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005d…1520backed Yes | 80c | 13.83$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C or below on August 15?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 15?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.