World Politics · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4fe1d532928b7bbdc6ed1214ee5537a100e0511c9d06036d956d9da321bc4b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,301
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,255
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,301 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x14e2…282fbacked No | 79c | 1,053$837 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.29 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 33c | 809.57$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.4 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6715…9365backed Yes | 19c | 375.98$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.76 | 74 | 27%20 W · 54 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 18c | 325.2$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.1 | 49 | 22.4%11 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 25c | 302.79$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.09 | 145 | 21.4%31 W · 114 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b50…c9babacked Yes | 64c | 301.4$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.69 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ab…a19fbacked No | 75c | 300$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.96 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4388…5050backed Yes | 10c | 266.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f2…96d7backed Yes | 30c | 262.7$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.65 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 44c | 252.76$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.39 | 235 | 51.9%122 W · 113 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 14c | 243.42$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x76f4…82dabacked Yes | 20c | 177.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.52 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98a4…b64dbacked Yes | 24c | 166.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 74c | 165.04$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.92 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 64c | 144.19$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.06 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff1f…e2e6backed No | 78c | 140$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2194…ae18backed Yes | 20c | 133.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 68c | 121.13$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.89 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 15c | 105$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.55 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 73c | 90.51$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.66 | 141 | 26.2%37 W · 104 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 18c | 66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked Yes | 27c | 63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6240…54c0backed No | 28c | 53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.16 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 69c | 52.56$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.48 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 54c | 50.1$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.27 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 57c | 48.07$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 246 | 37.4%92 W · 154 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 27c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 144 | 54.2%78 W · 66 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 76c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 79c | 38.34$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 78c | 32.2$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd372…04bebacked No | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.11per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf83e…4663backed No | 74c | 20.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +4.9wins | +0.15per pick | 55cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 80c | 20.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.04 | 183 | 48.6%89 W · 94 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 79c | 19.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.03 | 51 | 72.5%37 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C on August 15?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C or below on August 15?Yes won
- Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 24°C on August 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.