Europa Conference League · resolved market
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe9f4ad4076da6a9593cf52680784d5ab15296c9fb04ccd4fca1b1b2b744f8dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,308
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 80c | 3,517$2,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.01 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9030…4a23backed Over | 33c | 1,327$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.2 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 20c | 1,250$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 100 | 34%34 W · 66 L | -10.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Over | 11c | 1,249$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.13 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 69c | 751.1$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.74 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 12c | 600$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79c9…b2f1backed Over | 12c | 506.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 42c | 471.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 27c | 460.02$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.36 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff9…009dbacked Under | 74c | 458.73$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.03 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5a1c…d8debacked Over | 12c | 408.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Over | 13c | 384.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff80…8cb5backed Over | 21c | 334.76$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +48%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 152 | 24.3%37 W · 115 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x657e…e62fbacked Over | 13c | 315.38$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 12c | 213.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 12c | 158.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9a1…4dbdbacked Over | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 42c | 143.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…3d8cbacked Under | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.2wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Over | 19c | 129.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 80c | 120$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…e5a1backed Over | 15c | 109.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x741c…bf80backed Over | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3a…265ebacked Over | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c6…bca7backed Over | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 35c | 69.51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.33 | 146 | 41.1%60 W · 86 L | -14.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 24c | 59.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.96 | 2,167 | 37.6%815 W · 1,352 L | +5.7wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 39c | 44.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -7.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39d5…173dbacked Under | 78c | 42.73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Under | 69c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9831…9578backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 72c | 18.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Fenerbahçe SK vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Fenerbahçe SK (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.