MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfeb266b6b3e8566b83c19c04974582c1ec9f3335add0a90b118cba749f67e7f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,827
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 47c | 9,867$4,684 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,683.76 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Under | 52c | 3,096$1,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,471.94 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b60…9c7ebacked Under | 52c | 2,326$1,210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,116.57 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 68c | 2,319$1,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.59 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 34c | 1,501$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.04 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 53c | 807.54$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.7 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…4342backed Under | 56c | 691.89$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.38 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -24%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Under | 68c | 490.4$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.93 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 54c | 394.22$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.31 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Under | 55c | 394.09$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.77 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 46c | 276.15$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 53c | 248.91$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.54 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x556c…93cebacked Under | 59c | 216.54$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.78 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 43c | 205.41$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.92 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 54c | 179.89$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.75 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70f9…f25bbacked Under | 52c | 145.68$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.93 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 53c | 117.44$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 59c | 82.05$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.64 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Under | 54c | 75.85$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac3…c369backed Over | 43c | 67.76$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 48c | 66.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 52c | 58.27$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 185 | 53.5%99 W · 86 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 64c | 55.24$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Over | 43c | 55.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 36c | 54.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 56c | 51.9$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Over | 44c | 49.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…a8e9backed Over | 45c | 47.09$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 106 | 49.1%52 W · 54 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Under | 55c | 44.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 50c | 43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 66c | 37.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Over | 51c | 36.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 202 | 58.4%118 W · 84 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31c8…9487backed Under | 48c | 35.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 270 | 53.7%145 W · 125 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Under | 59c | 35.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 56c | 34.77$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9803…719abacked Under | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +31%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Under | 48c | 33.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5a…669bbacked Under | 62c | 24.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 51c | 24.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x362d…0c58backed Under | 58c | 20.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.59 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 57c | 19.48$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 64c | 17.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5this page
- Athletics vs. Seattle MarinersAthletics won
- Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.