MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8af5269249fb65e5303aaeb6ca1e65f3d5affe0b2dca37f9e89da704121a913
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,788
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 55c | 10,303$5,663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,662.52 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Under | 45c | 5,444$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,994.32 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 53c | 1,657$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 45c | 1,577$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.27 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b6…fa47backed Under | 45c | 1,528$688 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.32 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 62c | 1,329$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.43 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 47c | 1,045$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.26 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$660 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 41c | 950.68$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.43 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b36…56cebacked Under | 56c | 869.89$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 47c | 839.61$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.22 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Under | 51c | 826.5$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.84 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Under | 16c | 820.73$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.66 | 160 | 19.4%31 W · 129 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over | 56c | 806.41$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.75 | 125 | 51.2%64 W · 61 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Under | 29c | 801.94$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.15 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 69c | 773.3$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533.79 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 47c | 738.23$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.26 | 272 | 49.3%134 W · 138 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8821…32c6backed Over | 11c | 497.57$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.73 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa68…94a7backed Under | 58c | 487.4$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.71 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 466.96$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.49 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 19c | 432.51$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.18 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 45c | 376.15$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.84 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed Under | 45c | 349.08$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.99 | 311 | 49.2%153 W · 158 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 80c | 328.89$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.52 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 53c | 303.78$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.24 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 301.23$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.65 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 45c | 296.5$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.61 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5aa…4464backed Under | 47c | 291.65$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.58 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 51c | 254.55$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.25 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Under | 45c | 225.63$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.1 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 46c | 215.09$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.15 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Under | 51c | 156.42$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.29 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 78c | 153.25$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.27 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Under | 46c | 150$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79e0…b651backed Over | 10c | 140.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 65c | 140.82$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.66 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0979…fc8abacked Under | 25c | 140$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.56 | 102 | 15.7%16 W · 86 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Under | 47c | 127.83$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.75 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Over | 44c | 126.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.41 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Over | 50c | 113.42$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 45c | 108.06$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.02 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Under | 45c | 101.32$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.73 | 200 | 44.5%89 W · 111 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 55c | 76.36$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…a246backed Over | 54c | 73.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.87 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 44c | 57.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.47 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 45c | 55.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 48c | 55.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed Under | 45c | 48.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.59 | 247 | 48.2%119 W · 128 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 53c | 45.84$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f9…5445backed Over | 54c | 45.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 158 | 58.2%92 W · 66 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Over | 49c | 44.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 202 | 58.4%118 W · 84 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Over | 40c | 43.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…f4a0backed Under | 46c | 42.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.28 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7770…f99bbacked Under | 48c | 38.41$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | -5.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa20d…eadebacked Over | 53c | 36.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Over | 53c | 36.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.15 | 185 | 53.5%99 W · 86 L | +6.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…8f36backed Over | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 54c | 36.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 74c | 34.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 46c | 34.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.62 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 41c | 30.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 290 | 47.6%138 W · 152 L | -11.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Over | 56c | 26.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 57c | 25.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Under | 47c | 25.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Over | 57c | 24.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.84 | 53 | 67.9%36 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e6…a1ecbacked Over | 42c | 24.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…837abacked Over | 56c | 18.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…e671backed Under | 63c | 16.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 58 | 65.5%38 W · 20 L | +6.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
- Athletics vs. Seattle MarinersAthletics won
- Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Athletics won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.