NFL · resolved market
Ravens vs. Raiders
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfec0062eb32622dd29fd82d3e6e90e4907021e166636b915880d3085c0a7751d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Raidersof Ravens, Raiders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $87,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $84,533
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $87,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6761…a94fbacked Raiders | 20c | 9,095$1,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,275.7 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…70ffbacked Raiders | 20c | 7,535$1,490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,044.85 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked Raiders | 19c | 5,555$1,055 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,499.55 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd057…ae9fbacked Raiders | 15c | 5,002$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,241.99 | 118 | 21.2%25 W · 93 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed Raiders | 20c | 4,907$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,925.98 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Raiders | 19c | 4,000$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,239.94 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900d…2961backed Ravens | 80c | 3,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Raiders | 14c | 2,905$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,497.22 | 144 | 57.6%83 W · 61 L | +11.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a14…0762backed Ravens | 55c | 1,754$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.49 | 102 | 39.2%40 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Raiders | 20c | 1,500$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197.5 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x569e…67dbbacked Ravens | 51c | 1,300$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2137…0677backed Ravens | 11c | 1,149$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.6 | 204 | 40.7%83 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -17%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7a…3746backed Ravens | 80c | 924.96$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…cad6backed Raiders | 22c | 865$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.7 | 239 | 37.7%90 W · 149 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84db…aeebbacked Raiders | 20c | 835.71$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$665.21 | 115 | 44.3%51 W · 64 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc711…d3c6backed Raiders | 21c | 723.81$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.81 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.46per pick | 42cpaid | +142.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b5…e05cbacked Raiders | 31c | 711.03$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.13 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeecd…4fefbacked Raiders | 23c | 669.24$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.14 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Raiders | 19c | 555$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.55 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd13…e6f1backed Ravens | 4c | 550$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 6cpaid | +209.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…0df2backed Ravens | 80c | 500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd9…1095backed Ravens | 80c | 500$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9693…07c3backed Raiders | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 119 | 49.6%59 W · 60 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Ravens | 37c | 459.51$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.88 | 217 | 13.8%30 W · 187 L | -16.1wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Ravens | 3c | 458.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 333 | 28.5%95 W · 238 L | +16.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked Ravens | 7c | 405$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 128 | 43.8%56 W · 72 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf54…676abacked Raiders | 21c | 400$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a20…101cbacked Ravens | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 2cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0545…4e37backed Ravens | 80c | 343.75$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -5.2wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…a821backed Ravens | 68c | 295.9$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.62 | 128 | 42.2%54 W · 74 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c5…e38abacked Ravens | 80c | 250$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcede…f2f6backed Raiders | 24c | 238.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.24 | 90 | 22.2%20 W · 70 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0328…d834backed Raiders | 20c | 230$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc31…971fbacked Raiders | 22c | 229.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.65 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8398…047fbacked Raiders | 21c | 225$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.75 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb1…d3e3backed Raiders | 20c | 220.86$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.86 | 101 | 25.7%26 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Raiders | 68c | 205.15$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.05 | 256 | 43.8%112 W · 144 L | +14.6wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1180…8e39backed Ravens | 80c | 155.19$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.15 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -4.3wins | -0.29per pick | 56cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Raiders | 78c | 132.95$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.73 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b41…e0d3backed Ravens | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 198 | 64.6%128 W · 70 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Ravens | 78c | 124$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.54 | 180 | 51.7%93 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c5…ca4dbacked Ravens | 80c | 122.69$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…3a7abacked Raiders | 17c | 115.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.83per pick | 17cpaid | +476.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e00…14ecbacked Raiders | 21c | 115$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.85 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a05…e4b8backed Raiders | 17c | 114.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.38 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08e2…e186backed Raiders | 22c | 112.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.47 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a6…fd55backed Raiders | 28c | 112.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.98 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e1…0b47backed Ravens | 80c | 111$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…f0f2backed Raiders | 23c | 108$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.16 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee5…b0dcbacked Ravens | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.7wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca7…81ddbacked Raiders | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad45…6fffbacked Ravens | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 60cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Raiders | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 263 | 31.6%83 W · 180 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x535f…5ce5backed Ravens | 63c | 94.64$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Ravens | 78c | 93.13$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.01 | 128 | 27.3%35 W · 93 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa842…e305backed Raiders | 21c | 93.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.07 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…8eaabacked Raiders | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb55e…3aecbacked Raiders | 19c | 78.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 39cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…a1b2backed Raiders | 20c | 75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x212a…620bbacked Ravens | 80c | 75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xced0…c680backed Ravens | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Raiders | 21c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 284 | 36.3%103 W · 181 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…ba99backed Ravens | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d9…eff0backed Ravens | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e39…9ca2backed Ravens | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a11…0477backed Raiders | 21c | 49.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 44cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc50…4c82backed Ravens | 79c | 39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.81 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f9…4252backed Ravens | 54c | 29.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd798…fedfbacked Ravens | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.28per pick | 64cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4385…16bdbacked Ravens | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x350c…73d5backed Ravens | 80c | 22.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd718…13b9backed Ravens | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 71cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b70…20a3backed Raiders | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.