Premier League · resolved market
Manchester City FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff0132ff148fccccf06f5650ace31dbce9485b53e96196166dbff3b4ea8ce765
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Under | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 4,745$2,558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,186.99 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…582dbacked Over | 21c | 2,760$586 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$586.45 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4594…b1acbacked Under | 76c | 2,632$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$631.58 | 82 | 59.8%49 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dea…3792backed Over | 62c | 2,426$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 167 | 53.3%89 W · 78 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 25c | 1,346$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.67 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Under | 80c | 1,010$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202 | 135 | 65.2%88 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ba…2a30backed Under | 80c | 788$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.6 | 141 | 66.7%94 W · 47 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 58c | 689.66$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 38c | 597.94$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.04 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Over | 46c | 543.09$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.25 | 149 | 75.8%113 W · 36 L | +26.0wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 42c | 519.72$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.04 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 20c | 499.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.93 | 239 | 26.4%63 W · 176 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 75c | 461.01$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.36 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Over | 26c | 415.77$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…eca8backed Over | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 174 | 28.2%49 W · 125 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a2…1467backed Over | 66c | 361.15$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.11 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Under | 76c | 328.95$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.95 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 74c | 326$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.76 | 722 | 49.9%360 W · 362 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 35c | 281.43$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.71 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb6b…b0b9backed Over | 55c | 279.98$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.39 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d20…1f58backed Over | 59c | 271.19$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd179…74adbacked Over | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34cd…9675backed Under | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 351 | 34.8%122 W · 229 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b40…f395backed Over | 26c | 193.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Over | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 89 | 27%24 W · 65 L | -11.9wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 38c | 170.32$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 198 | 53%105 W · 93 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 353 | 47.6%168 W · 185 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x657e…e62fbacked Over | 26c | 134.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa60b…c728backed Over | 36c | 131.49$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 375 | 54.9%206 W · 169 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee07…3573backed Over | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f3…9b44backed Under | 42c | 114.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.19 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +3.1wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 24c | 105.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 110 | 53.6%59 W · 51 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 37c | 104.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | -7.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 33c | 102.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 201 | 43.8%88 W · 113 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 36c | 101$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 379 | 58%220 W · 159 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0f…bbfebacked Under | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 815 | 59%481 W · 334 L | +32.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…be32backed Under | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44ee…5a77backed Over | 28c | 95.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 58c | 90$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…ba91backed Under | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 142 | 52.1%74 W · 68 L | -6.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc51a…7ad9backed Over | 59c | 85.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.26 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Over | 26c | 81.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Over | 24c | 77.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 24c | 75.02$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993a…1e2fbacked Over | 34c | 65.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.3wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Over | 34c | 56.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +8.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +68%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 55c | 55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 556 | 54.9%305 W · 251 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0666…d31abacked Over | 26c | 51.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7954…0e92backed Under | 76c | 49.97$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20b9…e557backed Under | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Over | 53c | 46.16$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 181 | 39.2%71 W · 110 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72bd…d37abacked Over | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked Under | 77c | 40.6$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.34 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39d…c817backed Under | 77c | 35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9db1…d726backed Over | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…edcabacked Over | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 170 | 48.8%83 W · 87 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd11…79a5backed Under | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -5.0wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefa3…e52bbacked Under | 65c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 75c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…bebdbacked Over | 59c | 18.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 271 | 73.8%200 W · 71 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 76cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester City FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Manchester City FC vs. Fulham FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Manchester City FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Fulham FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Fulham FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.