Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfac57520e31f0e6a47a37a95a9bdd426cc62d7d55e0e8c90dc4356699abdbeff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Manchester City FCof Manchester City FC, Fulham FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,317
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,317 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1b4d…e246backed Manchester City FC | 26c | 22,992$5,978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,014.33 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Fulham FC | 74c | 18,646$13,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,770.29 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Fulham FC | 74c | 4,000$2,960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,960 | 183 | 62.3%114 W · 69 L | +17.5wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd146…9bf0backed Manchester City FC | 26c | 4,000$1,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,960 | 459 | 36.2%166 W · 293 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Fulham FC | 74c | 3,290$2,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,434.6 | 1,283 | 48%616 W · 667 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Fulham FC | 73c | 1,042$757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$756.82 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf984…24cebacked Manchester City FC | 27c | 925.93$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.93 | 71 | 31%22 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce24…6239backed Manchester City FC | 27c | 600$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Manchester City FC | 26c | 342.24$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.26 | 524 | 54.2%284 W · 240 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d1…0c8fbacked Fulham FC | 73c | 300$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…b5e3backed Fulham FC | 74c | 250$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Fulham FC | 73c | 203$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.19 | 722 | 49.9%360 W · 362 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Manchester City FC | 28c | 200$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 440 | 36.8%162 W · 278 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8549…41f8backed Manchester City FC | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.57 | 272 | 27.9%76 W · 196 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…c1f9backed Fulham FC | 74c | 169.23$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.23 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…83dfbacked Fulham FC | 75c | 88.17$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Manchester City FC | 24c | 82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 34cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…9c04backed Manchester City FC | 27c | 74.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.75 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Fulham FC | 74c | 57.8$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 232 | 50.9%118 W · 114 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x891f…88bfbacked Fulham FC | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Manchester City FC | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.57 | 360 | 36.1%130 W · 230 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e31…a753backed Manchester City FC | 28c | 39.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Fulham FC | 74c | 36.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.37 | 426 | 58%247 W · 179 L | +24.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50da…df00backed Fulham FC | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Fulham FC | 72c | 25.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 492 | 54.9%270 W · 222 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed Fulham FC | 73c | 20.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Fulham FC | 77c | 18.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Fulham FC | 76c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -8.7wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdb…75dbbacked Fulham FC | 74c | 14.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3692…2136backed Fulham FC | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5)this page
- Manchester City FC vs. Fulham FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Manchester City FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Manchester City FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Manchester City FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Fulham FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Fulham FC (-2.5)Manchester City FC won
- Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5)Manchester City FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.