MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff1fd8e30b46e47240726b7c63925df0be3e268c84005659eb8e2207472e38bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Angelsof Houston Astros, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,037
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,715
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,037 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Houston Astros | 43c | 3,861$1,664 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,663.64 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 3,312$1,984 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,327.82 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 3,000$1,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,293.5 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddf…c684backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 2,781$1,585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,195.74 | 239 | 48.5%116 W · 123 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Houston Astros | 33c | 2,690$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.84 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 33c | 2,525$832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.03 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Houston Astros | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 36c | 1,947$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.33 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Los Angeles Angels | 69c | 1,530$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.75 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 1,418$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.99 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 885.28$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.8 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 500$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Houston Astros | 43c | 411.63$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 165 | 43%71 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 376.27$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.8 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 328$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.92 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Houston Astros | 43c | 275.08$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.29 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Houston Astros | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked Houston Astros | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Houston Astros | 40c | 191$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.4 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros | 36c | 185.65$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.11 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Los Angeles Angels | 74c | 178.08$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.79 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Los Angeles Angels | 63c | 175.17$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.45 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Houston Astros | 44c | 134.09$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 131.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 435 | 60%261 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Houston Astros | 29c | 121.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Houston Astros | 41c | 107.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Houston Astros | 33c | 103.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.62 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Houston Astros | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f86…404ebacked Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.33 | 105 | 59%62 W · 43 L | +6.4wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Houston Astros | 43c | 89.48$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.47 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Houston Astros | 43c | 88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Houston Astros | 43c | 88$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…def7backed Houston Astros | 25c | 78.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6b…e0f3backed Houston Astros | 44c | 71.6$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 172 | 53.5%92 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 70.3$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…d0e5backed Houston Astros | 19c | 67.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 102 | 8.8%9 W · 93 L | -31.9wins | -0.31per pick | 40cpaid | -82%equal weight | 22-0.25 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Houston Astros | 33c | 63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eae…f9d1backed Houston Astros | 43c | 53.65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Houston Astros | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 544 | 55.1%300 W · 244 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 39.16$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.45 | 134 | 41%55 W · 79 L | -12.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…c8efbacked Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 38.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c77…e637backed Houston Astros | 43c | 37.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Houston Astros | 31c | 32.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 31.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Houston Astros | 40c | 30.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Los Angeles Angels | 78c | 30.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 27.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Houston Astros | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Houston Astros | 41c | 24.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ce…41acbacked Los Angeles Angels | 59c | 22.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Los Angeles Angels | 61c | 21.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Los Angeles Angels | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Los Angeles Angels | 72c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Los Angeles Angels | 75c | 19.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0e…accebacked Los Angeles Angels | 58c | 18.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.68 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Los Angeles Angels | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5537…fdaabacked Los Angeles Angels | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles AngelsHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-3.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles AngelsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.