NBA · resolved market
Nets vs. Magic: 1H Moneyline
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff32faf0a512d6759a25cec771c4ab3f1e640bd8656f1c1c9352c6dc65341247
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Nets, Magic
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf395…8e3cbacked Nets | 30c | 599.99$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Magic | 73c | 334$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.34 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Nets | 31c | 310.81$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.97 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Magic | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5718…24d4backed Magic | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…4488backed Magic | 80c | 156.25$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -7.4wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Magic | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Magic | 69c | 105.58$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Magic | 68c | 99.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…b8f7backed Nets | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +5.7wins | +0.22per pick | 32cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Nets | 26c | 84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.84 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c00…741dbacked Magic | 74c | 40.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.54 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nets vs. Magic: 1H Moneylinethis page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-5.5)Magic won
- Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Nets vs. MagicMagic won
- Nets vs. Magic: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Nets vs. Magic: O/U 212.5Over won
- Nets vs. Magic: O/U 213.5Over won
- Nets vs. Magic: O/U 214.5Over won
- Nets vs. Magic: O/U 215.5Over won
- Nicolas Claxton: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Nicolas Claxton: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Magic (-10.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-11.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-8.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-9.5)Magic won
- Tristan da Silva: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.