NBA · resolved market

Spread: Magic (-9.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbaad875c196b05bf09125fba412d0ffd4275b4342a948d205ed0cf2ec98d52a7

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Magicof Magic, Nets
Resolved: Feb 6, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $305,166
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $305,317

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $305,166 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5877…d894backed Nets	51c	199,011$101,395 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101,395.33	90	43.3%39 W · 51 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Magic	49c	102,103$50,031 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52,072.63	1,045	49%512 W · 533 L	+21.8wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Magic	50c	60,000$30,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30,000	404	46.8%189 W · 215 L	-3.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Magic	49c	16,885$8,274 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8,611.4	593	47%279 W · 314 L	-7.3wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Magic	51c	12,119$6,125 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,994.54	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Magic	49c	6,500$3,185 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,315	242	52.5%127 W · 115 L	+18.7wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	+13.6%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x201c…58bfbacked Nets	50c	5,000$2,500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,500	185	47%87 W · 98 L	-4.9wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Nets	51c	5,000$2,550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,550	1,556	52.8%822 W · 734 L	+40.9wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+10.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Magic	50c	5,000$2,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,500	1,820	52.1%948 W · 872 L	+48.5wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Nets	51c	5,000$2,550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,550	691	49.1%339 W · 352 L	-8.6wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Magic	50c	2,816$1,408 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,408	657	50.1%329 W · 328 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Magic	49c	2,666$1,306 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,360.07	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Magic	50c	2,500$1,250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,250	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8a8…a48ebacked Magic	50c	2,220$1,110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,110	143	58.7%84 W · 59 L	+12.9wins	+0.09per pick	50cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Magic	51c	2,069$1,054 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,014.74	2,078	53.6%1,113 W · 965 L	+44.6wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8873…09fcbacked Nets	51c	2,059$1,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,050.11	78	48.7%38 W · 40 L	-3.7wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e46…35efbacked Magic	50c	1,400$700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$700	38	50%19 W · 19 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Nets	50c	1,189$595 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$594.5	6,213	50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L	+53.8wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda5f…2e9bbacked Nets	51c	1,176$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	419	54.4%228 W · 191 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c6f…014ebacked Nets	52c	1,010$525 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$525.2	183	45.4%83 W · 100 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Magic	50c	960$480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480	430	52.3%225 W · 205 L	+8.4wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe71e…8e58backed Magic	50c	800$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$400	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+1.2wins	+0.40per pick	27cpaid	+244.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e27…9967backed Magic	50c	792.08$396 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$396.04	72	61.1%44 W · 28 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Magic	50c	786.96$390 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$396.9	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Nets	51c	490.2$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	529	51.2%271 W · 258 L	+13.2wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Magic	50c	439.4$221 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$218.8	1,029	47.7%491 W · 538 L	-13.8wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x011b…fcc3backed Nets	51c	313.73$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	217	43.8%95 W · 122 L	-9.5wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x43d7…dca3backed Nets	51c	294.12$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	150	52.7%79 W · 71 L	+5.0wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9827…6c61backed Magic	52c	291.34$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$141.08	41	58.5%24 W · 17 L	+4.6wins	+0.11per pick	47cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Nets	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	786	52.4%412 W · 374 L	+14.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x73da…b7acbacked Magic	49c	200$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102	200	57%114 W · 86 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Magic	51c	196.07$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$96.07	634	47.5%301 W · 333 L	-19.8wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x911d…2438backed Magic	50c	161$81 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80.5	66	54.5%36 W · 30 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf18a…e4e5backed Nets	46c	151.76$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.99	3,551	46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd00…7a45backed Nets	51c	147.06$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	380	50.8%193 W · 187 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Nets	48c	144.72$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.96	8,988	47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L	+96.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Magic	50c	143.11$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72.16	3,902	47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L	-17.9wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Nets	51c	127$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.77	522	40%209 W · 313 L	-8.4wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Magic	51c	102.11$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.87	927	50.6%469 W · 458 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Nets	50c	100$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	506	51.2%259 W · 247 L	+11.8wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x441d…7a4ebacked Magic	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	61	45.9%28 W · 33 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce3e…2f24backed Magic	51c	100$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49	250	56.8%142 W · 108 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Magic	49c	98.58$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.28	950	47.2%448 W · 502 L	-28.5wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Nets	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	661	53.3%352 W · 309 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x85c2…9730backed Nets	51c	98.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	685	42.6%292 W · 393 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe70c…c938backed Magic	51c	97.84$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.94	745	47.2%352 W · 393 L	-13.2wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe97…89e1backed Nets	51c	84.12$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.9	282	51.8%146 W · 136 L	+5.5wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe44e…c6b8backed Magic	50c	80$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	40	40%16 W · 24 L	-4.5wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Magic	49c	79.07$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.32	1,046	51.1%534 W · 512 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda16…6da2backed Nets	51c	79$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	470	45.1%212 W · 258 L	-10.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa66d…0859backed Magic	50c	78.41$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.81	216	45.8%99 W · 117 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x735a…3ef2backed Nets	51c	68.63$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	163	45.4%74 W · 89 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x635b…195dbacked Nets	52c	64$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.28	382	52.4%200 W · 182 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0354…2913backed Magic	50c	43.63$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.82	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ed4…620ebacked Magic	51c	41.06$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.14	311	55%171 W · 140 L	+8.0wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3744…3e65backed Magic	49c	40.82$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.82	78	43.6%34 W · 44 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Magic	51c	40.52$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.86	4,878	48%2,341 W · 2,537 L	+61.9wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50e9…f2cabacked Nets	50c	40.08$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.04	35	34.3%12 W · 23 L	-6.3wins	-0.18per pick	52cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xffe7…471dbacked Magic	51c	39.22$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	209	65.6%137 W · 72 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	64cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51c1…8e47backed Nets	51c	39.22$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed Magic	51c	39.03$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.22	336	53.9%181 W · 155 L	+13.4wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Nets	51c	37.59$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.17	1,264	45.8%579 W · 685 L	-10.4wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c69…2b8dbacked Magic	51c	31.41$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.41	1,003	51%512 W · 491 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa307…8ea3backed Magic	50c	30.08$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.04	203	52.2%106 W · 97 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3494…04f4backed Magic	51c	28.84$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.13	350	49.4%173 W · 177 L	-4.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeefb…d11fbacked Nets	57c	26.42$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	43	53.5%23 W · 20 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab95…90b1backed Nets	51c	20.41$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.41	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9900…ffacbacked Magic	50c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-2.1wins	-0.36per pick	52cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Magic (-9.5)this page
1H Spread: Magic (-5.5)Magic won
Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 24.5No won
Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
Nets vs. MagicMagic won
Nets vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineMagic won
Nets vs. Magic: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
Nets vs. Magic: O/U 212.5Over won
Nets vs. Magic: O/U 213.5Over won
Nets vs. Magic: O/U 214.5Over won
Nets vs. Magic: O/U 215.5Over won
Nicolas Claxton: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
Nicolas Claxton: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
Spread: Magic (-10.5)Magic won
Spread: Magic (-11.5)Magic won
Spread: Magic (-8.5)Magic won
Tristan da Silva: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 10.5No won
Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Magic (-9.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event