NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb60a0f2fa4abcaa1f47cfd2ccae20e33311e59002ce59fbf5dc219f14567c653
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Magic, Nets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,872
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,348
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,872 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1bc0…4429backed Nets | 46c | 25,000$11,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,500 | 483 | 43.7%211 W · 272 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…8676backed Magic | 54c | 20,000$10,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,199.99 | 176 | 46%81 W · 95 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Magic | 54c | 10,000$5,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,600 | 382 | 51%195 W · 187 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Nets | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1,194 | 48.8%583 W · 611 L | -22.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Nets | 46c | 1,453$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.44 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nets | 45c | 721.5$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.46 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Magic | 54c | 506.31$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.17 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0599…3c6abacked Magic | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 235 | 46.8%110 W · 125 L | -18.7wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Nets | 46c | 320.84$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.59 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c0…427bbacked Nets | 47c | 250$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.5 | 184 | 46.2%85 W · 99 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed Nets | 38c | 233$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.69 | 470 | 45.1%212 W · 258 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f63…a78dbacked Nets | 46c | 215.2$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.99 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Magic | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 158 | 46.8%74 W · 84 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Magic | 52c | 190.53$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.47 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9069…9c14backed Magic | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd70…3ebbbacked Nets | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Magic | 55c | 153$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.85 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Nets | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 641 | 39%250 W · 391 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849f…0665backed Nets | 46c | 144.86$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.64 | 950 | 47.2%448 W · 502 L | -28.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…8d92backed Nets | 40c | 142$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Nets | 8c | 133.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d35…e83ebacked Nets | 47c | 125.62$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.04 | 66 | 43.9%29 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b0…ea3bbacked Nets | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 151 | 54.3%82 W · 69 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…f23ebacked Nets | 47c | 125$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 435 | 44.6%194 W · 241 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Magic | 54c | 107.67$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.53 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f18…2080backed Magic | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 248 | 50%124 W · 124 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Magic | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Magic | 54c | 99.55$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.59 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Nets | 47c | 97.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.43 | 506 | 51.2%259 W · 247 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ca…9ef8backed Magic | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 285 | 54.7%156 W · 129 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Magic | 54c | 90$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Nets | 46c | 84$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…6a69backed Nets | 47c | 78.11$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 201 | 49.8%100 W · 101 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Nets | 47c | 68.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 628 | 44.9%282 W · 346 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb38c…b2c9backed Nets | 46c | 68$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 239 | 46.4%111 W · 128 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Magic | 54c | 67.6$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 1,758 | 48.7%856 W · 902 L | +28.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked Nets | 47c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.55 | 206 | 51%105 W · 101 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc76e…caa5backed Nets | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked Nets | 47c | 48.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1,003 | 51%512 W · 491 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Magic | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.45 | 209 | 65.6%137 W · 72 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4a…4fb5backed Nets | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Magic | 35c | 38.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 766 | 53.5%410 W · 356 L | +65.5wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…2108backed Nets | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 358 | 44.1%158 W · 200 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958e…ecbfbacked Nets | 47c | 37.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Nets | 46c | 37.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3e…2f24backed Magic | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 250 | 56.8%142 W · 108 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…5976backed Magic | 54c | 35.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64f1…90d9backed Nets | 47c | 35.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Nets | 47c | 32.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 448 | 44.2%198 W · 250 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d57…2b4ebacked Nets | 47c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 539 | 45.3%244 W · 295 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…889cbacked Nets | 45c | 29.71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.44 | 197 | 50.3%99 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e8…3a5dbacked Magic | 54c | 29.63$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 548 | 54.2%297 W · 251 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5c…9e02backed Nets | 47c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 215 | 46.5%100 W · 115 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Nets | 46c | 28.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…2d57backed Nets | 46c | 27.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 141 | 54.6%77 W · 64 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Magic | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 146 | 54.8%80 W · 66 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…1adfbacked Magic | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed Nets | 47c | 24.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 327 | 43.4%142 W · 185 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6896…c672backed Nets | 47c | 22.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7315…f9a0backed Magic | 53c | 19.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…b828backed Magic | 53c | 18.92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.89 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-8.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Magic (-5.5)Magic won
- Jalen Suggs: Assists O/U 5.5Yes won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Points O/U 24.5No won
- Michael Porter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Nets vs. MagicMagic won
- Nets vs. Magic: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Nets vs. Magic: 1H O/U 110.5Under won
- Nets vs. Magic: O/U 212.5Over won
- Nets vs. Magic: O/U 213.5Over won
- Nets vs. Magic: O/U 214.5Over won
- Nets vs. Magic: O/U 215.5Over won
- Nicolas Claxton: Points O/U 10.5Yes won
- Nicolas Claxton: Rebounds O/U 6.5No won
- Spread: Magic (-10.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-11.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-9.5)Magic won
- Tristan da Silva: Rebounds O/U 3.5No won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Wendell Carter Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.