Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff4bad390ed8a1be5d9009bf01a51788067bd817e0eb2352a59ead23b2c964e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,949
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,855
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,949 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 5c | 2,259$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.64 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 3c | 1,836$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 6c | 1,056$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.66 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6265…c059backed Yes | 5c | 608.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 10c | 598.11$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked No | 69c | 529.62$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.86 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 9c | 460.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.68 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 5c | 419.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 413.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 5c | 399.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 355.24$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.68 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 11c | 303.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes | 7c | 250$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 7c | 245.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 18c | 242.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.84 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 28c | 229.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.3 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c28…1041backed Yes | 14c | 227.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 14c | 218.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.87 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8b…808ebacked Yes | 9c | 194.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 21c | 141.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 38c | 133.64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…0bfbbacked Yes | 10c | 124.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 76c | 109.27$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 10c | 108$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 39c | 101.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…b116backed Yes | 15c | 101$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 149 | 26.2%39 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 12c | 100.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c8f…1181backed Yes | 17c | 97.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 21c | 95.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 16c | 93.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 86.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.36 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…4965backed Yes | 23c | 84.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 26c | 80.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69b…368ebacked No | 80c | 80.5$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 15c | 67.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 30c | 58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.61 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 71c | 56.37$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.37 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 37c | 55.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…a5b8backed Yes | 37c | 53.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.94 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 37c | 52.39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 69c | 50.06$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Yes | 34c | 40.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 70c | 28.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df1…d397backed No | 67c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 63c | 19.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 67c | 19.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71c6…3eb8backed No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 74cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…e682backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 258 | 68.2%176 W · 82 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 69c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C or below on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.