Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0943c5d2012ce90399af65f8371991ed962505f9f4f2139ac8d28071afd23b7a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,798
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,451
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,798 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38a7…d69dbacked No | 2c | 860.24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 235 | 49.4%116 W · 119 L | -12.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 5c | 657.02$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.96 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 9c | 630.15$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.56 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 19c | 565.22$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$457.09 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 534$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.59 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 74c | 485.26$358 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.78 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 61c | 432.51$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.91 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 75c | 426.93$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.23 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 17c | 425.82$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.65 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Yes | 20c | 352.46$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.46 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed Yes | 22c | 348.92$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.36 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 76c | 319.97$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.18 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 20c | 315.58$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.46 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 62c | 307.71$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.07 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 22c | 307.18$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.28 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd009…75d6backed No | 4c | 305.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 57c | 275.4$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.86 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…f7ffbacked Yes | 21c | 250$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.7 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 32c | 240.91$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.8 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 21c | 235$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 58c | 202.79$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.24 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 187.83$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.6 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed Yes | 31c | 176.36$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.96 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 39c | 175.84$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes | 33c | 165.03$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.83 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 29c | 154.42$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 44c | 152.07$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.12 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 28c | 150$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.59 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 36c | 149.78$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.81 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 12c | 146.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.88 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 63c | 134.58$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.41 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d8…f2a6backed Yes | 11c | 132.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.54 | 378 | 35.4%134 W · 244 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5370…0e83backed Yes | 16c | 126.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +283.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 20c | 126.28$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.43 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 53c | 117.06$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.01 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 63c | 115.63$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.81 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 48c | 106.11$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.94 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 13c | 103.32$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 101.13$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.93 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 37c | 100.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.94 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 56c | 98.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.78 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e37…9a37backed Yes | 12c | 97.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.84 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 63c | 93.16$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.67 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 92.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.62 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00d7…a7fdbacked Yes | 34c | 88.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 25c | 88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 34c | 87.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 59c | 83.73$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.44 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 37c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.16 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed Yes | 20c | 75.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.37 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 57c | 75.36$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.93 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…0ce8backed Yes | 34c | 73.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 58c | 72.95$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 15c | 72.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.63 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed Yes | 56c | 69.62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.63 | 101 | 84.2%85 W · 16 L | +26.9wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 32c | 67.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.85 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 77c | 63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 19c | 61.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.89 | 49 | 91.8%45 W · 4 L | +18.2wins | +0.37per pick | 55cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 77+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb9…1879backed Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 43 | 93%40 W · 3 L | +14.6wins | +0.34per pick | 59cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9d…e9f4backed Yes | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 33 | 90.9%30 W · 3 L | +10.4wins | +0.32per pick | 59cpaid | +71.6%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d1…d203backed Yes | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +5.4wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 57c | 56.55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 59c | 51.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…0171backed Yes | 29c | 50.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.17 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.5 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…5731backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.26 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 77c | 45.11$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.51 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 25c | 45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.76 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 67c | 44.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 68c | 44.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.64 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 68c | 34.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 71c | 34.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…d735backed Yes | 61c | 34.44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.32per pick | 56cpaid | +145.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 38c | 33.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0605…1593backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.46 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…91f1backed No | 63c | 24.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 57c | 18.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 64c | 16.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1907…ac1abacked Yes | 80c | 13.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.61 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C or below on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.