Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C or below on May 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x51e7538807087a59999ca9e2b0d212d5d7d651b193fa3e64c2b5b21adec504de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $145,205
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $145,205 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 122 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7bd5…4390backed Yes | 2c | 71,792$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.98 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…3b9bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,659$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63e…db54backed Yes | 0c | 10,032$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa96…7c9abacked Yes | 2c | 6,811$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed Yes | 3c | 1,616$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.13 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 22c | 1,328$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.04 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…f7ffbacked Yes | 13c | 1,265$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.49 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 26c | 1,226$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910.86 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94af…e65fbacked Yes | 62c | 999.99$618 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$618 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed No | 37c | 788.87$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.35 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 34c | 709.15$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.34 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked No | 34c | 629.15$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.42 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 3c | 570.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…7ce5backed Yes | 56c | 467.72$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.7 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked No | 17c | 457.23$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.06 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 436.52$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.38 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 36c | 404.4$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.75 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4269…e056backed No | 52c | 404.04$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.49 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 33c | 343.99$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.32 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 79c | 334.27$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.92 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 56c | 294.61$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.86 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 64c | 281.51$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14da…0af1backed No | 25c | 260.95$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.64 | 119 | 26.1%31 W · 88 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 51c | 235.83$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.42 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 42c | 225.16$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.06 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 15c | 211.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 23c | 207.71$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.48 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73c2…4261backed Yes | 78c | 196.62$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.43 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 10c | 180$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 50c | 161.36$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.91 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 151.21$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.81 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…43a8backed Yes | 38c | 150$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.47 | 245 | 39.6%97 W · 148 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6265…c059backed No | 14c | 145.65$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.65 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 54c | 145$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.82 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 44c | 144$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.87 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5da…27b7backed No | 34c | 143.98$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.16 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 17c | 142.74$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.57 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No | 30c | 138.17$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.5 | 358 | 54.7%196 W · 162 L | -13.7wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe60…c2f7backed No | 15c | 137.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.28 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 36c | 129.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.64 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 22c | 125$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.84 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 42c | 117.56$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.51 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…f17cbacked Yes | 63c | 117.43$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.67 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed No | 21c | 111.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.08 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 36c | 107$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.64 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…0171backed Yes | 77c | 100.32$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.41 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.8 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 63c | 99.95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.7 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 27c | 98.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 70c | 96.55$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 27c | 95.07$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.97 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed No | 40c | 85$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4a28…d58bbacked Yes | 61c | 82.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8215…1279backed No | 19c | 82.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.85 | 387 | 58.7%227 W · 160 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 49c | 78.15$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 64c | 75.83$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc040…c411backed Yes | 77c | 70$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…0ce8backed Yes | 70c | 65.22$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc713…f0bcbacked No | 16c | 63.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 66c | 61.45$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e5…b209backed Yes | 55c | 61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | -12.8wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 56c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 63c | 59.14$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 30c | 56.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d7…a7fdbacked Yes | 71c | 55.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed Yes | 55c | 52.13$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bbc…90d5backed Yes | 75c | 52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…5731backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 66c | 49.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 65c | 49.92$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.47 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…a481backed Yes | 40c | 49.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 39c | 49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 57c | 48.59$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Yes | 62c | 48.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 54c | 44.15$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 60c | 44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…7518backed No | 64c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…665abacked Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 394 | 27.4%108 W · 286 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 38c | 39.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 26c | 39.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.16 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 37c | 38.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9d…df7fbacked No | 56c | 38.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc4…7ae7backed No | 32c | 38.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.31 | 236 | 33.5%79 W · 157 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…a28dbacked Yes | 47c | 36.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4130…2fd6backed Yes | 58c | 34.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 98 | 32.7%32 W · 66 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 65c | 34.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac7…744dbacked Yes | 80c | 33.88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 60c | 32.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed Yes | 32c | 32.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…11e0backed Yes | 67c | 31.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…76efbacked Yes | 63c | 30.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 65c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39bb…13d7backed Yes | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…a41bbacked Yes | 59c | 29.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 104 | 10.6%11 W · 93 L | -42.2wins | -0.41per pick | 51cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 14-0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 35c | 29$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C or below on May 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.