Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff6b2d3c334c56a960b3ad42b649d5984557b54347828ff96011bb87cd95ad74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,096
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,458
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,096 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 55c | 851.91$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.61 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 46c | 820.95$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.75 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff2…f140backed No | 54c | 745.3$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 1,250 | 25.4%317 W · 933 L | +57.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 54c | 272.22$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.7 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 271.43$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.7 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 37c | 265.28$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.85 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 40c | 257.4$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.44 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed No | 54c | 250$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 559 | 54.7%306 W · 253 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268f…bbd7backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 14c | 216.29$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 215$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.65 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 46c | 214$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.56 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 57c | 200.46$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.66 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 37c | 197.77$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.68 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 56c | 187.04$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.91 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 39c | 174.89$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.52 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 46c | 174.18$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.06 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 55c | 129.23$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.79 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 8c | 128.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed No | 24c | 113.39$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.23 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 46c | 106.65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.83 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 15c | 90.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 27c | 90.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.11 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 53c | 71.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.3 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 47c | 65.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.54 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 56c | 60.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 182 | 40.1%73 W · 109 L | -16.6wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 33c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 61c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 46c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa7…1cbcbacked Yes | 53c | 57.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc9…b2eebacked Yes | 47c | 52.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 46c | 52.25$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4df…b0d4backed Yes | 79c | 50.95$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed Yes | 47c | 50.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed No | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 57c | 47.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 48c | 46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…100abacked Yes | 46c | 43.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.47 | 124 | 38.7%48 W · 76 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 43c | 42.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86d3…da78backed No | 49c | 41.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 265 | 33.2%88 W · 177 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 53c | 39.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x304b…a619backed No | 59c | 38.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 275 | 52%143 W · 132 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3b…880abacked No | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…40cdbacked No | 52c | 36.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 72 | 51.4%37 W · 35 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 45c | 35.53$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…0a0dbacked Yes | 46c | 35.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.22per pick | 33cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 38c | 31.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.82 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 54c | 28.22$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e0…e538backed Yes | 46c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 77c | 26.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 61c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 47c | 24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 61c | 22.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4941…a2bebacked No | 62c | 21.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…5a95backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0082…c023backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 170 | 28.8%49 W · 121 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.