World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff6f26dc4306cd67d7de62d121468a953dfe0c504ca44e3e6752c740dc1263b2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,380
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 49c | 530.41$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.24 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 44c | 451.17$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 51c | 221$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.29 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 56c | 194.76$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.89 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 42c | 179.14$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.39 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 47c | 159.96$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.78 | 132 | 68.9%91 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 51c | 138.65$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.79 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 47c | 110.47$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.83 | 218 | 54.6%119 W · 99 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0091…32a1backed Yes | 51c | 98.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 51c | 98.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 58c | 95.35$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.45 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 55c | 86.05$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 50c | 81.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 48c | 76.89$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 47c | 74.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 49c | 72.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 68.04$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 47c | 61.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed No | 52c | 58.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.12 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 67c | 54.95$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.74 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 44c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 51c | 50.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.5wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 50.83$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 51c | 50.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 52c | 50.16$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 43c | 49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 49c | 47.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 53c | 45.83$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 68 | 47.1%32 W · 36 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 51c | 44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 50c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 47c | 42.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 53c | 42.1$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.3 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 52c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 44c | 38.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 50c | 38.16$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 44c | 37.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.27 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9dd…4226backed No | 51c | 37.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 53c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aba…9a6dbacked Yes | 70c | 31.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 52c | 31.4$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | -5.4wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 48c | 29.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…2bdbbacked Yes | 68c | 29.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 51c | 29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7861…3084backed Yes | 70c | 25.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2362…2ec5backed No | 54c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5e…35c9backed Yes | 50c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 57c | 20.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 58 | 60.3%35 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5284…27f5backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 179 | 52.5%94 W · 85 L | -15.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 57c | 18.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 61c | 16.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 30?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 30?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.