Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xff81dd9628a910336bcde0ea8746c435230f7478f53d7ce565e30e53fbc686d2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,316
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,316 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 1c | 4,116$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.02 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…5396backed Yes | 0c | 3,959$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 21c | 1,529$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.22 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedd1…45a9backed Yes | 2c | 1,400$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 73 | 5.5%4 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +161.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 22c | 1,397$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.91 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3d…1e5abacked Yes | 2c | 1,380$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 52 | 3.8%2 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x494d…2567backed Yes | 1c | 1,269$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaed7…2783backed Yes | 4c | 859.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 9c | 737.11$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.57 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 2c | 669.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 3c | 603.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x238d…eb74backed Yes | 2c | 600$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 63 | 1.6%1 W · 62 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 44c | 535.49$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.24 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked Yes | 42c | 527.82$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.94 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5207…4cfcbacked Yes | 2c | 468.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -93.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 5c | 459.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…2116backed Yes | 4c | 449.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 68c | 439.13$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.97 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 13c | 393.03$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.95 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 5c | 388.41$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked Yes | 25c | 311.97$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.07 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 22c | 299.99$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 5c | 298.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 5c | 285.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…889abacked Yes | 45c | 219$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.06 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2fd…3d4ebacked No | 73c | 202.66$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.04 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +22%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbda8…63debacked Yes | 5c | 201.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 18c | 192$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 75c | 189.54$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.66 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 39c | 147.7$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.88 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 27c | 135.11$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.25 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5198…4964backed Yes | 30c | 127.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 15c | 114.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda99…322fbacked Yes | 12c | 114.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.77 | 91 | 13.2%12 W · 79 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.7 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73f7…cfccbacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 78c | 76.45$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5e…271bbacked Yes | 80c | 69.83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.87 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…f009backed Yes | 16c | 67.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 26c | 66.88$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed No | 46c | 65.51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.49 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9af…8178backed No | 78c | 59.58$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 21c | 51.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92dc…ae74backed No | 70c | 50.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed No | 50c | 49.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b77…dfdbbacked No | 29c | 48.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.25 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…7ababacked No | 79c | 47.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.13 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a2c…3d80backed Yes | 36c | 46.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 189 | 31.7%60 W · 129 L | -40.3wins | -0.21per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…ba7fbacked No | 78c | 45.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.1 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…d30fbacked No | 72c | 39.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…2b6bbacked Yes | 68c | 28.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 130 | 81.5%106 W · 24 L | +11.9wins | +0.09per pick | 72cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked No | 65c | 27.52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.62 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbef0…bd7abacked Yes | 57c | 25.54$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…3965backed Yes | 62c | 24.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed No | 47c | 23.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 78c | 20.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…af4bbacked No | 70c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.78 | 199 | 70.4%140 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 9?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.