Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x37b59cc1d69a9e713ca9b78c3d810af153168ae452ed7b41d5bb70cb95aacddc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,756
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,171
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,756 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 1,741$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 53c | 1,445$766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.75 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 56c | 1,380$774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.68 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0198…133bbacked No | 2c | 1,244$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 184 | 52.2%96 W · 88 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 66c | 679.42$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.94 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 3c | 677.87$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 662.2$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.83 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…c7dbbacked Yes | 53c | 602.07$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.17 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 59cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8009…3e9abacked No | 3c | 502.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 34c | 276.6$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.17 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 13c | 260.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.29 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…889abacked Yes | 53c | 237.68$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.34 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 33c | 220.96$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.12 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked No | 61c | 220.03$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.74 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 28c | 211.44$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.2 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 65c | 209$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.56 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed No | 49c | 208.8$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.36 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 60c | 199.1$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.93 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b77…dfdbbacked No | 7c | 188.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x882f…5967backed Yes | 49c | 186.57$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.75 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 40c | 169.47$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.92 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 52c | 162.14$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.17 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 53c | 156.62$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 45c | 151.41$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.08 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…19abbacked Yes | 62c | 147.41$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.06 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 133.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.77 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99c7…9acfbacked Yes | 29c | 129.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.1 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb49…41a2backed No | 59c | 121.99$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.71 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -38%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 55c | 108.41$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 33c | 105.99$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.49 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 25c | 102.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 54c | 101.07$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.35 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813c…1cd1backed Yes | 52c | 99.43$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.34 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 52c | 96.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 12c | 92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.96 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c72…3beebacked Yes | 74c | 87.93$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.71 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 56c | 85.06$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.25 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…6fe7backed Yes | 33c | 84.27$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.69 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae35…76dbbacked Yes | 29c | 81.1$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +6.1wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x60ea…1e83backed Yes | 53c | 76.78$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.39per pick | 46cpaid | +90%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…9211backed Yes | 67c | 72.09$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 64.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73f7…cfccbacked Yes | 24c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd7…4a8fbacked Yes | 28c | 57.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbb…1928backed No | 65c | 57.55$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 23c | 49.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.14 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 25c | 46.25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 42c | 42.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c7…c06cbacked Yes | 46c | 41.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 54c | 40.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.1 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…ea77backed No | 59c | 40.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.87 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,275 | 34%433 W · 842 L | +46.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…f009backed Yes | 31c | 38.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.83 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…9936backed Yes | 49c | 38.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 100 | 59%59 W · 41 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 44c | 36.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 35c | 34.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa258…6182backed No | 50c | 34.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 43c | 34.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.47 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6b…c559backed Yes | 60c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x695e…6803backed Yes | 38c | 31.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +147%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd77b…2207backed No | 46c | 30.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37eb…8aeabacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed Yes | 40c | 26.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 60c | 25.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…e80cbacked Yes | 78c | 25.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3141…f16abacked Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes | 62c | 24.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 65c | 23.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5e…5cdbbacked No | 45c | 23.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 68c | 21.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a0…4a06backed No | 62c | 21.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…383bbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 208 | 66.8%139 W · 69 L | +8.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f7…8bf1backed No | 59c | 19.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 74c | 19.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbef0…bd7abacked No | 71c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on April 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.