Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on April 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x171f1921c97ea386eec89f3b3f6554fe51f3fb22cc208184202b911cf8aad2da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,943
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,943 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 109 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 17c | 1,529$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.35 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 1c | 1,267$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 73c | 824.91$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.43 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 3c | 773.11$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 25c | 705.96$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.13 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 6c | 620.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 28c | 598.33$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.92 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 25c | 417.46$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.31 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 30c | 360.81$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.31 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e8…9c25backed No | 79c | 360.46$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.78 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -8.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 23c | 268.54$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.08 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 60c | 249.84$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.28 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 22c | 240.27$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 17c | 200$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa773…449cbacked Yes | 62c | 198.4$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.91 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x050a…9a4abacked No | 67c | 196.2$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.44 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…c7dbbacked No | 66c | 191.57$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.01 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 59cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x813c…1cd1backed Yes | 38c | 190.35$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.71 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6581…3f76backed Yes | 57c | 182.97$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.13 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd30c…ada7backed No | 75c | 171.06$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.67 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed Yes | 57c | 159.96$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.5 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…f009backed Yes | 14c | 156.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 39c | 142.77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.37 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed No | 68c | 142.55$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.76 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e22…184abacked Yes | 41c | 140.25$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 58c | 139.95$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.28 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 45c | 118.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Yes | 39c | 112.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.03 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26bd…2c54backed No | 49c | 107.52$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +4.9wins | +0.19per pick | 45cpaid | +90.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6a23…fd22backed Yes | 39c | 107.04$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9188…e046backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 569 | 21.8%124 W · 445 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73f7…cfccbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95b2…49aabacked Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99c7…9acfbacked No | 63c | 99.78$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 54c | 99.54$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.75 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x905c…14b5backed No | 80c | 98$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 37c | 94.37$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.51 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…ea77backed Yes | 44c | 92.61$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4760…91cdbacked Yes | 20c | 92.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 54cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 32c | 92.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…9211backed Yes | 53c | 89.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 78.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…889abacked Yes | 34c | 69.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed Yes | 70c | 67.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.49 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc1…2ababacked Yes | 57c | 67.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x230f…9ff4backed No | 53c | 66.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -16%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 34c | 62.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 78c | 60.41$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 42c | 59.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28d0…f0b2backed Yes | 38c | 57.6$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 31c | 56.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa3…b6cfbacked Yes | 50c | 56.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 28c | 56.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f3…883cbacked Yes | 34c | 55.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 62c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…22f7backed Yes | 70c | 54.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.97 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 68c | 53.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c7…c06cbacked Yes | 37c | 50.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3c…15edbacked Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +10.5wins | +0.23per pick | 36cpaid | +67%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce3…1689backed Yes | 44c | 49.51$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 474 | 32.5%154 W · 320 L | +20.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 55c | 48.83$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a6…b13dbacked Yes | 27c | 46.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 41c | 45.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 32c | 43.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 69c | 41.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4774…f36dbacked No | 57c | 41.05$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 51c | 40.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 47c | 38.77$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.55 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 29c | 38.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec6…7566backed Yes | 33c | 37.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -5.1wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…c0bfbacked No | 52c | 37.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -18%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Yes | 54c | 35.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 36c | 33.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 53c | 33.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.64 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53e7…6df6backed Yes | 48c | 33.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb732…6900backed No | 58c | 32.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 412 | 58.3%240 W · 172 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 69c | 32.26$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 48c | 31.17$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 75c | 30.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…129dbacked No | 74c | 29.52$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 51c | 29.02$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Yes | 35c | 28.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes | 51c | 28.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 87 | 62.1%54 W · 33 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695e…6803backed No | 43c | 28.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +147%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c2d…f01abacked Yes | 52c | 27.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3059…a423backed No | 67c | 25.15$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b33…b345backed No | 45c | 24.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa258…6182backed No | 63c | 23.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bf…4512backed No | 75c | 23.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f0d…7a8fbacked No | 68c | 22.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.28per pick | 55cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 57c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.46 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked Yes | 46c | 21.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa568…90cfbacked No | 48c | 21.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…19abbacked Yes | 68c | 21.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.26per pick | 48cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…97abbacked Yes | 61c | 20.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 167 | 40.1%67 W · 100 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4d…ee6abacked Yes | 63c | 20.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc970…e315backed No | 52c | 19.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C or higher on April 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 9?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.